Oil Bubble – No way! There would have to be a Market in Oil for there to be a Bubble

There is no such thing as supply and demand in the liquid carbon fuel markets so it is tough to argue that there was a “Bubble” per se in the run up to 140 $$$ oil. For instance, oil spikes and gas hikes are being blamed on a “weak dollar” but in fact should be attributed to the fact that 2 major refineries in the US have been shut down and a 1000 workers laid off. In the case of the oil spike, speculators clearly ran up the price. Nearly 25% of the oil mysteriously “disappeared” from the market, only to reappear as the market fell. Those are the classic “finger prints” of a speculator driven rip off. But some people want to fog the headlights with argle bargle.

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_opinion?id=161551563

An oil bubble

Following on last week’s topic, some have suggested that maybe, like the housing bubble in the US, the spike in oil prices and their subsequent collapse could have been an oil price bubble that also pulled up the prices of natural gas.

First, we should examine the phenomena that govern the life cycle of the economic bubble-its start, growth and eventual collapse. There is no consensus on what causes a bubble. Further, one view is that a bubble can only be identified after it has manifested itself in all of its stages. It is not clear-cut since even now after the collapse of oil prices there are still questions as to whether there was an oil economic bubble. (Did we have a housing bubble?).

One thesis is that high market liquidity is necessary, though not a sufficient condition for its start. This encourages people to invest in a particular asset both to preserve the value of their money in the face of inflation, but also to sometimes sell at a higher rate later to make, as it were, a killing.

What was of particular concern in the US housing bubble is that people were persuaded to enter into mortgages that they could not really afford while the prices of the assets were rising. High liquidity encourages mark-up inflation across the board and investing in a bubble suggests that such activities may also be seen as hedges against headline inflation.

At the peak of the bubble the price fetched by the asset is far greater than the real market value, even to produce it from scratch. When the bubble bursts, prices fall and many are left with an asset, say, houses, for which they hold inverted mortgages whose values are far in excess of what the asset is worth.

Also, the mortgagee may not be able to service these assets and we have heard stories of people returning the keys of houses to the banks and walking away in the aftermath of a bubble. Looking back at the investment frenzy of the bubble many commentators have remarked on the herd instinct of the investors -more like a stampede as the herd races towards a cliff.

Last week’s article demonstrated that because of the absolute elasticity of the supply of paper-oil on the futures market, this market on its own, without reference to the economic fundamentals of the physical-oil market, cannot support a bubble. Therefore, the evidence, if any exists, has to be sought in the physical market.

In order for speculators to influence the trend price of physical-oil, futures and index investors have to continue to buy large quantities of physical-oil and hold these quantities off-market. There is no evidence that this occurred and if it did it would have to be immense quantities to manipulate a worldwide physical market as large as the present crude oil market.

Yet because of Peak Oil a bubble in oil prices could be established. Oil inventories were not excessive and any increase that there was can be explained away by the fact that oil use, particularly in China and India, also increased, impacting positively on the associated inventories.

Another test for an oil bubble (Stuart Sandiford in the Oil Drum, “Is Oil in a Price Bubble”) is the rate at which the asset price increased and if this was faster than exponential growth a bubble is in the making.

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dot dot dot (as they say)

If one were to examine the depreciation of the US dollar (the currency in which oil/gas prices are quoted) then with the US dollar now pegged at 1.09 Euros, the lowest it has been for seven months, it is clear that oil price adjustment is in part related to producers trying to counteract the depreciating US dollar and (temporary) stockpiling.

As the US dollar depreciates the TT dollar (tied to it) also depreciates, compounding its local depreciation against the US dollar. Thus our foreign revenues will reflect this US dollar depreciation, stockpiling and the resulting price volatility.

maryking@tstt.net.tt

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The Disappearance Of Honey Bees – It’s A Modern Urban Legend

It is true. Even though stories about disappearing honey bees, or even Colony Collapse Disorder have appeared on 60 minutes, Scientific America and even NatGeo. There is very little truth to it. It is largely a North American and European commercial pollination problem which would never really effect food production much. If they worked me as hard as they do the commercial bees I’d fly away too. My Pawpaws are pollinated by flies so I don’t really care. If you don’t believe me read this:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427316.800-the-truth-about-the-disappearing-honeybees.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news

But this and yesterday’s post got me to thinking about eating simply and it furthers my meditation on living off the land. Humans have come to eat so complicatedly and chemically. Did you ever wonder why Lay’s Potato Chips claims that”you can’t eat just one” and they are probably right? I am no extremist veggan or anything approaching one. There are 200,000 deer in Illinois and if oil collapsed tomorrow and with it civilization I would go shoot one the day after. I don’t even know if the children still trick or treat for Unicef but in that spirit let’s start with Plump-i-nut factories in Africa:

http://www.unicef.org/media/ethiopia_38423.html

UNICEF Executive Director inaugurates Ethiopia’s first Plumpy’nut factory

UNICEF Image
© UNICEF/2007/Wiggers
UNICEF Executive Director Ann M. Veneman receives flowers from children upon her arrival at the new Plumpy’nut factory in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

By Indrias Getachew

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, 21 February 2007  UNICEF Executive Director Ann M. Veneman inaugurated Ethiopia’s first Plumpy’nut therapeutic food factory in Addis Ababa yesterday.

The inauguration marks a joint venture between UNICEF, US-based private donor and businesswoman Amy Robbins and the Hilina Enriched Foods Processing Centre.

Plumpy’nut is a high-protein and high-energy, peanut-based paste used for the treatment of severely undernourished children. An estimated 1.5 million children in Ethiopia are severely undernourished. At full capacity, Hilina Enriched Foods will produce up to 12 tons of the paste per day.

“Today as we open the doors of the fourth, and largest, factory in Africa that will produce Plumpy’nut, we are taking a step in the right direction in addressing the issue of malnutrition,” said Ms. Veneman.

Generous solution

In 2005, the Robbins family donated $1.3 million to UNICEF to allow the purchase and import of 267 tons of Plumpy’nut to Ethiopia.

Formulated by French scientist Andre Briend in 1999, Plumpy’nut has been used to save children’s lives in major emergency situations in Darfur, Niger and Malawi.

UNICEF Image
© UNICEF/2007/Wiggers
From left: Philanthopist Amy Robbins, Minister of Trade and Industries Ato Girma Birru and the State Minister for Agriculture at the inauguration of the Plumpy’nut factory in Addis Ababa.

Plumpy’nut requires no preparation or special supervision, so an untrained adult such as a parent can deliver it to an undernourished child at home, allowing governments to reduce the amount of money spent on therapeutic feeding stations. The paste has a two-year shelf life when unopened and stays fresh even after opening.

Though Plumpy’nut is relatively inexpensive and easy to transport, Ms. Robbins discovered that huge costs were incurred from its importation and that limited capacity at the French plant made it difficult to ensure timely food supplies from Europe.

To solve the problem, her family foundation donated $340,000 towards investment in the needed equipment to manufacture Plumpy’nut within Ethiopia.

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Everyone knows that factory farming of animals pioneered here in the Corporate US of A is dangerous to the health of all involved including the humans. Everyone knows that eating cow flesh is probably not a good idea, at least everyday or even 2 or 3 times a week. Goats, sheep, fowl and pigs are much better alternatives.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goat

The most recent genetic analysis[5] confirms the archaeological evidence that the Anatolian Zagros are the likely origin of almost all domestic goats today. Neolithic farmers began to keep them for easy access to milk and meat, primarily, also for their dung, which was used as fuel and their bones, hair, and sinew for clothing, building, and tools.[1] The earliest remnants of domesticated goats dating 10,000 before present are found in Ganj Dareh in Iranian Kurdistan. Domestic goats were generally kept in herds that wandered on hills or other grazing areas, often tended by goatherds who were frequently children or adolescents, similar to the more widely known shepherd. These methods of herding are still used today.

Historically, goat hide has been used for water and wine bottles in both traveling and transporting wine for sale. It has also been used to produce parchment

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Not to mention that the flesh is wonderful and so are the milk and cheese. They will eat just about anything and everyone should have at least 2. Again it is the GROWTH model that destroys the equilibrium of the planet. Simple is laughed at. People who juice their foods live much long because their foods are fresh and uncooked.

http://www.powerjuicer.com/?gclid=CLyzu7yY4J0CFQ4hDQod9ilOMA

Jack LaLane should know he has been at it for years:

green04.jpg

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Our GROWTH system even prevents or even worse obliterates local options. When I found out about Pawpaws I was thoroughly amazed:

Cultivation and uses

Asimina triloba is often called prairie banana because of its banana-like creamy texture and flavor.

The pawpaw is native to shady, rich bottom lands, where it often forms a dense undergrowth in the forest. Where it dominates a tract it appears as a thicket of small slender trees, whose great leaves are borne so close together at the ends of the branches, and which cover each other so symmetrically, that the effect is to give a peculiar imbricated appearance to the tree.[1]

Although it is a delicious and nutritious fruit, it has never been cultivated on the scale of apples and peaches, primarily because only frozen fruit will store or ship well. It is also difficult to transplant because of fragile hairy root tentacles that tend to break off unless a cluster of moist soil is retained on the root mass. Cultivars are propagated by chip budding or whip grafting.

In recent years the pawpaw has attracted renewed interest, particularly among organic growers, as a native fruit which has few to no pests, and which therefore requires no pesticide use for cultivation. The shipping and storage problem has largely been addressed by freezing. Among backyard gardeners it also is gaining in popularity because of the appeal of fresh fruit and because it is relatively low maintenance once planted. The pulp is used primarily in baked dessert recipes and for juicing fresh pawpaw drink or drink mixtures (pawpaw, pineapple, banana, lime, lemon and orange tea mix). In many recipes calling for bananas, pawpaw can be used with volumetric equivalency.

The commercial growing and harvesting of pawpaws is strong in southeast Ohio. The Ohio Pawpaw Growers’ Association annually sponsors the Ohio Pawpaw Festival at Lake Snowden near Albany, Ohio.

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But really the place to start with all of this is to pick your foods carefully. Find a butcher and get to know him or her. Look around and find local growers that you can trust. When you have to go to a modern grocery store go there with a certain amount of fear and suspicion.

web_ads_combined.jpg

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Global Warming Debunked…Nuclear Power Perfectly Safe

Oil and Natural Gas will never run out…Am I a Google whore or what? Still when you say things like that out loud they seem so silly. Or more like impossible. So I would like to continue our meditation on “living off the land” by looking at some sustainable communities around the country and the planet.

This guy will build it for you:

http://www.placeonline.us/about.html

Who, What, Why | Meet The Team | Board of Directors | Frequently Asked Questions

What is PLACE?

PLACE® is a nonprofit organization that works with cities to create leading-edge communities that promote the arts, environmentalism and social justice. Through a community-driven, ethically-focused process, PLACE develops new models for urban neighborhoods that demonstrate the best practices in environmental design, live/work development for artists and creative businesses, affordable workforce housing, and supportive housing for the most economically distressed. Our vision is to change the way communities are made.

We strive to make each PLACE project reflect the highest community ideals, creating beautiful and inspiring places, lifting people out of poverty, empowering community participation, and providing equal opportunity, all while generating economic return, renewable energy and jobs. PLACE communities seek to dramatically improve the way we live, work, play, commute, create, and interrelate, as well as the way we impact our cities and our Earth.

PLACE was founded by Chris Velasco in 2005. PLACE and its respected national board of directors bring extensive experience in creating the public/private partnerships necessary to finance, develop and operate complex, economically-sustainable facilities. As an entrepreneurial nonprofit, PLACE uses proven market approaches and cutting edge funding methods to develop projects that are economically self-sustaining. PLACE’s projects blend the arts, environmentalism, community-driven development, live and work space, smart growth, small business development and affordable housing — all together in one, inspiring place.

What does PLACE build?

The PLACE Team works with architects, engineers, artists and builders to create:

• Alternative energy communities
• Green artist enclaves, communities, neighborhoods, communes and villages
• Eco Villages
• Green affordable housing and supportive housing
• Sustainable communities for artists and artisans
• Green arts facilities and green theaters
• Next-generation communities
• Cultural tourism destinations
• Inspiring, transformational places

How is PLACE funded?

PLACE is a 501(c)3 publicly-supported charity, which means that donations made to the organization are tax deductible. In addition to private donations and grants from foundations and corporations, PLACE receives funding for its projects from local, state and federal governmental entities. The PLACE organization also collects fees from the development and operation of its projects, speaking engagements, and consulting efforts. You can donate to our efforts by clicking here.

What’s a good example of a PLACE project?

The Working Artists Ventura (WAV) project is a state-of-the-art community designed for artists and creative businesses. Located in the cultural district of downtown Ventura, California, WAV will offer affordable living and working space for over a hundred artists of every kind: painters, sculptors, dancers, poets, musicians, filmmakers and more.

Currently under construction and on schedule for completion and occupancy in September 2009, WAV has been developed in unique concert with the local community. Over the course of its development, PLACE and the City have held over one hundred public meetings, engaging the local community in every aspect of WAV’s design, purpose, and spirit. These meetings have resulted in a project that both meets the critical needs voiced by Ventura’s community, and gives the project the kind of wholesale support that is often lacking in many developments. Click here for more about WAV.

What’s on PLACE’s horizon?

PLACE is pleased to introduce a groundbreaking sustainable development called E-Generation™. Imagine a mixed-use, mixed-income, creative urban community designed to include a compact power facility capable of converting waste into clean, renewable energy. A safe, sanitary, nearly invisible system built into the development will process all the waste produced on site: one hundred percent of the garbage, recyclables and liquid waste, or black water. Community life creates waste, this waste creates clean renewable energy, which powers community life — a perfectly efficient cycle. Learn more about E-Generation by clicking here.

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Or if you are rich:

http://www.serenbecommunity.com/home.html

At home at Serenbe.
Let’s say you could create the perfect place to live. Blank slate. Anything you want.

You might want a place where your quality of life was extraordinarily high. Where you felt an easy sense of community. Where the principles of sustainability touched everything from your home’s methods of construction to the organic produce on your table that was grown by one of your neighbors.

Speaking of neighbors, you might prefer an eclectic group, from artists to writers to farmers to business people. You might like to walk paths that take you through both forest and meadow, ride horses along tree-canopied trails, or hear music outdoors in your neighborhood amphitheatre. Maybe you’d just like a place to get away, a place where you can enjoy a simpler life. For miles around you the Chattahoochee Hill Country is protected with a master plan that calls for 80% green space.

Let’s say you’d like a place where you can stroll as well as stride. Where you can spend time being as well as doing. Then perhaps Serenbe is a place you’d be at home.

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They are in Britain:

http://www.goingcarbonneutral.co.uk/

Located in rural Cheshire, Ashton Hayes is a well knit community of about 1000 people that is aiming to become England’s first carbon neutral community. We started our journey in January 2006 and since then we have already cut our carbon dioxide emissions by 23% – by working together, sharing ideas and through behavioural change. This website encapsulates our journey towards carbon neutrality and offers free advice and guidance. Please feel free to use anything from our website (we’d like a credit if you can).

Tuesday

06Oct2009

Parish Council votes to apply for Low Carbon Communities Challenge funds

They are in Australia:

 

http://masg.org.au/?p=1291

Join the national ride and walk to work and school movement

Ride and Walk to Work and School was on Wednesday the 14th

A free community breakfast was held at Victory Park.
About 60 people braved the rain and cold weather to breakfast up on tasty food.
A thanks to those who dontated goods including Goodfoods, Bakers Delight and Don KRC .
A blessing of the bicycles by Uniting Church minister Gordon Bannon took place at 8.30am.
This event was made possible by our dedicated volunteers, with a special thanks to Jacqueline Brodie-Hans and with financial support by the Mount Alexander Shire Council.

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Then there is my favorite, East Wind. I have visited this place…I have their original sandals. I have their new and inproved sandals. Now they are into Nut Butters…WOW

 http://www.eastwind.org/

 

Gardens Interview: Richard
Saturday, 20 June 2009
Hi!  I’m J, and I’ll be writing for East Wind’s website.  We’re working on putting up new content on a regular basis now that some members of the community have expressed interest in contributing material. I’m going to be doing a series of interviews and posting the transcripts, the first of which is with Richard, one of our two garden managers.
Read more…

 

Changes
Friday, 12 June 2009
There are some changes being made to this website and how we handle emails, please bear with us. Several email servers have been blocking our emails, if you have been trying to contact us from an address served by one of these, you have not been getting our responses. I have made some changes that should prevent this from happening in the future. However, this change might cause some disruption in the meantime, so if you are expecting some information from membership and have not recieved a response, please try again.

 
 

 

New Administrator

Wednesday, 03 June 2009
Hi, I am Oak and I am, as it is, taking over administrating this website. Right now I amstill learning about the system Dan set up, but I hope that I can soonadd more articles to tell you all more about our community and what we aredoing.

More…

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If you want the list of Thousands and I am not kidding then this is for you:

http://www.ecobusinesslinks.com/sustainable_communities.htm

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Meditation On Living Off The Land – Then there are the log cabin and gardening crowd

I do not believe that living off the land has to be conceptualized as pastoral idealism. All I think it means is giving back to the Earth as much as we take. I am not sure that we have to give up on technology to accomplish Earth centered practices. What we have to stop is growth. Still there are many people who if given the chance would go “back” to a rural existance. Then there are those that really want to go native:

 http://www.ehow.com/how_136589_live-land.html

How to Live Off the Land

Instructions

  1. Step 1

    Clarify your objectives. Is your goal to experience a short-term wilderness retreat, live in harmony with nature for the long haul or just survive a reality-show stint in the South China Sea? What level of technology and tools will you employ: GPS device or compass and sextant? Zippo or flint and steel?

  2. Step 2

    Enroll in a wilderness preparedness course, such as those offered by Outward Bound (outwardbound.com) or the National Outdoor Leadership School (www.nols.edu). You will learn vital skills such as navigating with a map and compass, shelter construction and first aid.

  3. Step 3

    Choose an environment with significant opportunities for food, water and shelter. Solo adventures are really only feasible in warm or temperate climates. Abundant water is essential to survival. If you don’t have a reliable source of clean water, become expert at purifying water in large quantities.

  4. Step 4

    Become expert at starting a fire without matches. Your best bet is probably the bow-drill technique. For detailed instructions on this, go to www.wmuma.com/tracker/skills/fire/bowdrill/.

  5. Step 5

    Learn how to make a basic shelter. Review 474 Survive Being Lost for instruction. Choose a camping spot with easy and reliable water access. Without a mechanical system of delivery and storage, obtaining water may be your biggest daily task.

  6. Step 6

    Know how to use, repair and sharpen basic tools. Living off the land requires that you get very close to that land. Axes, knives, shovels, hoes and fishing gear will be essential to your survival.

  7. Step 7

    Study the flora and fauna of your intended destination. Be able to identify edible plants and practice locating, harvesting and preparing them long before you set out.

  8. Step 8

    Learn to see and feel changes in the weather and to take appropriate action.

  9. Step 9

    Practice whatever hunting method you choose until you are an expert. Hunting is difficult and unpredictable; fishing is more reliable and requires less physical effort.

  10. Step 10

    Learn how to process skins in order to make clothing. Practice harvesting reeds and grasses in order to make baskets and rope.

  11. Step 11

    Keep an apartment in Manhattan for those times when you need to get away from it all.

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I think it is amazing how much you have to know and how skillled you have to be to do “back to nature” well.

Then there are the people who want a house and an outhouse instead of a tent:

 http://www.organic-gardening-and-homesteading.com/self_reliance.html

Self Reliance – How to Live Off Your Homestead

Is self reliance your dream? More people are turning to homesteading, depending upon themselves for their food and making a living off their land. If you long to get off the office treadmill and onto your own land, here are some crucial steps you should take to pursue your life of freedom

Get Out of Debt

As any farmer will tell you, unless you own a corporation with hundreds, if not thousands of acres, you won’t make a fabulous income living off the land. Those farmers who do own hundreds of acres and thousands of dollars worth of equipment (along with the mortgages to prove it) are struggling to get by. The secret is to live simply and downsize.

Sell that newer car with those high car payments and buy a used model, preferably one with no payments. Avoid fast food and cook at home instead. Learn to live on a budget and cut back on unnecessary expenses. Then use that extra money to pay off your loans.

Get Some Land

You don’t need hundreds of acres, but if you want to live off your land, you will need at least five. You will want enough space for a good sized garden, along with some farm animals. Live in town? Consider selling or renting that house and buying a used manufactured home set on a small acreage instead. Many people do it and live quite comfortably – and debt free.

Learn to Grow Your Own Food

Homestead Garden

Put in a lot of raised beds and grow potatoes, carrots, tomatoes and other vegetables. Learn to preserve your food through canning, drying and freezing, so that you go to your pantry instead of the grocery store, cutting down on cost and time. Growing food is one of the most satisfying aspects of self reliance.

Get Your Goat

Goats will supply you with milk, meat and cheese. Control their diet – only hay and grains – and your goat’s milk will taste exactly like cow’s milk, only sweeter. Plus, many people are realizing the health benefits of raw goat’s milk, making it a marketable product. Get two or three female goats – or does – along with a billy goat, and you will have enough milk for your family and some extra to sell to cover your cost.

Raise Chickens

These wonderful birds will supply you with eggs, meat, and even income if you raise enough of them. Fresh chicken eggs are easy to sell. These eggs are delicious, and if they come from chickens who have eaten mostly grass and insects – chickens who live in chicken tractors, for example – they are also far healthier and more valuable than the store-bought brand.

Diversify What You Sell

Many people who try living off the land make the mistake of raising a single product in large supply and then selling it. But if the crop fails, then you are in trouble. Instead, raise a small supply of several items to sell. Sell chicken eggs and goat’s milk, honey and produce when it’s in season. That way if one item fails to produce, you have others to fall back on. Your pursuit of self reliance will be easier.

Nigerian Goats Eating

Avoid the Exotic

A few years ago, raising ostriches were all the rage. At least they were until those raising them realized not many people are willing to eat ostrich meat. For self reliance, it is far wiser to stick with the standard fare – chickens, pigs, and beef, for example. Raising something unusual and hoping to get rich off it – like many get rich quick schemes –usually leaves you with an empty pocketbook and an animal nobody wants and you have to feed.

Raise Only What You Want to Eat

This goes with the ostrich example above. If you don’t sell those hundreds of bushels of Japanese beets, then be prepared to eat them. If you don’t enjoy them that much, then don’t grow them.

Be Prepared to Learn a New Trade

My grandfather was a plumber, and even during the depression, he prospered. During hard times, people might not need an insurance adjuster, but they will need someone who can fix their leaky pipes. Consider learning carpentry, electrical work or mechanics. Learn to make practical, useful items that you can sell or barter with. There is no better way to prepare for a life of self reliance

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You get the general idea…

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/CollegeAndFamily/RaiseKids/live-off-the-land-in-the-city.aspx

Live off the land — in the city

Wild greens, mushrooms, fruit and even fish and game can be harvested in America’s urban jungles. Dandelion salad, anyone? Or some batter-fried squirrel?

[Related content: savings, save money, groceries, food prices, Donna Freedman]

By Donna Freedman

MSN Money

Feeling squeezed at the supermarket? Maybe you should be looking for food in the parking lot, or in your neighbor’s yard

We’re talking dandelions, feral mushrooms, gleaned fruit, local fish or even those wascally wabbits that overrun city greenbelts. Ingenuity plus a little sweat equity can put fresh, healthful food on the table and possibly provide other benefits as well: exercise, relaxation and a different way of looking at your neighborhood.

For example:

  • Chauncey Niziol fishes for bass and bluegills in downtown Chicago.
  • Steven Rinella traps squirrels and catches pigeons in Brooklyn, N.Y.
  • Jeff Yeager harvests shoots from bamboo that grows in his suburban Washington, D.C., yard.
  • Katy Kolker harvests tree fruit that otherwise would have rotted in Portland, Ore.
  • Radical ecologist” Nance Klehm plucks salads out of city sidewalks and leads urban foraging walks around her home city of Chicago. A few clients are survivalists, she says, or foodies who are looking for “unusual tastes.” But most are simply “curious about the world around them.” Foraging is “about a connection and an interaction with an environment,” she says.

Chowing down on chickweed

According to her Spontaneous Vegetation Web site, Klehm grows or forages nearly everything she eats. The wild greens she harvests are what most people would think of as weeds: wood sorrel, mallow, chickweed, wild mustard and the like. Some can be eaten only at certain times of the year; dandelions, for example, are best when very young.Klehm recommends using wild plants in moderation at first, because their flavors can be strong. Besides, “if you don’t have a very flexible or curious palate, you might not find them tasty” in large quantities.

What’s most important, however, is knowing what you’re eating. The difference between the right plant and a look-alike is the difference between a nice salad and a trip to an emergency room. Where you find your food is important, too, because you could be sickened by food from polluted soils or waterways.

Klehm recommends buying a reputable field guide to local flora. It’s also smart to seek out community-college classes or local plant walks; if neither exists, get a group of like-minded folks together and pay a local botanist to educate you on what and where to pick. Keep that field guide handy whenever you go out on your own, though.

Mushrooms, bamboo and ferns, oh my

Books by the late naturalist Euell Gibbons introduced Yeager, aka “The Ultimate Cheapskate,” to wild edibles. Yeager, who grew up in Ohio and now lives about 20 miles south of Washington, doesn’t harvest as many wild things as he once did. But he still keeps his eyes peeled when walking or bicycling.For example, why pay for chicory when you can find it growing volunteer? “The wild stuff is much more potent,” says Yeager, whose mom and dad were pleased when he brought home this coffee enhancer. They were also fond of the wild onions that he dug up and pickled: “My parents liked those in their martinis.” (Yeager preferred the onions in a cream soup.)

Sometimes a “wild” plant is a cultivated variety that jumped a fence or was spread by birds or carelessly dumped garbage. Yeager has found asparagus, zucchini, black raspberries and even watermelons growing in fields and along roads. His own yard is “packed with bamboo” — an increasingly common landscape plant — so he cooks the young shoots in the spring.

While Chicago native Niziol focuses mostly on fishing and hunting in his weekly ESPN radio program, he’s not strictly carnivorous. Niziol swears by a good plate of fiddlehead ferns, fresh wild carrots (aka Queen Anne’s lace) or a mug of sassafras tea (“it tastes like root beer”).

And mushrooms? Don’t get him started. “I use them every which way I can. I put them in stews, I dry them, I make a killer mushroom soup,” says Niziol, a former outdoors columnist for the Chicago Tribune.

Mushrooms must be picked with care, he notes, because some fungi are poisonous. A good field guide is essential. What’s even better is to find a local mycological society and start taking walks with experts.

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Just so you don’t think I didn’t notice, oil is over 80 $$$ and the speculators are getting ready to bid it up so that oil will be over 100 $$$ by the end of the year, maybe. No matter what, gasoline will be over 3 $$ because the oil companies are shutting down refinery capacity at an increasing rate. Everyone will blame it on the “weakness” of the dollar, which of course, China controls.

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Can We Live Off The Land If We Have To – Bear in mind that doom is rarely sudden

Rome did not end in a day or a week or a year or even a decade. Still the past few day’s meditations have been CAN we live off the Earth peacefully? Today’s is better thought of as WILL we HAVE to life off the Earth peacefully?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=47729BA0-933E-4299-92CC-EB41EEE671D2

Paul B. Farrell

Paul B. Farrell

 

Oct. 20, 2009, 1:38 p.m. EDT

Death of ‘Soul of Capitalism:’ Bogle, Faber, Moore

20 reasons America has lost its soul and collapse is inevitable

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Jack Bogle published “The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism” four years ago. The battle’s over. The sequel should be titled: “Capitalism Died a Lost Soul.” Worse, we’ve lost “America’s Soul.” And worldwide the consequences will be catastrophic.

That’s why a man like Hong Kong’s contrarian economist Marc Faber warns in his Doom, Boom & Gloom Report: “The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today.”

No, not just another meltdown, another bear market recession like the one recently triggered by Wall Street’s “too-greedy-to-fail” banks. Faber is warning that the entire system of capitalism will collapse. Get it? The engine driving the great “American Economic Empire” for 233 years will collapse, a total disaster, a destiny we created.OK, deny it. But I’ll bet you have a nagging feeling maybe he’s right, the end may be near. I have for a long time: I wrote a column back in 1997: “Battling for the Soul of Wall Street.” My interest in “The Soul” — what Jung called the “collective unconscious” — dates back to my Ph.D. dissertation: “Modern Man in Search of His Soul,” a title borrowed from Jung’s 1933 book, “Modern Man in Search of a Soul.” This battle has been on my mind since my days at Morgan Stanley 30 years ago, witnessing the decline.

Has capitalism lost its soul? Guys like Bogle and Faber sense it. Read more about the soul in physicist Gary Zukav’s “The Seat of the Soul,” Thomas Moore’s “Care of the Soul” and sacred texts.

But for Wall Street and American capitalism, use your gut. You know something’s very wrong: A year ago “too-greedy-to-fail” banks were insolvent, in a near-death experience. Now, magically they’re back to business as usual, arrogant, pocketing outrageous bonuses while Main Street sacrifices, and unemployment and foreclosures continue rising as tight credit, inflation and skyrocketing Federal debt are killing taxpayers.

Yes, Wall Street has lost its moral compass. They created the mess, now, like vultures, they’re capitalizing on the carcass. They have lost all sense of fiduciary duty, ethical responsibility and public obligation.

Here are the Top 20 reasons American capitalism has lost its soul:

1. Collapse is now inevitable

Capitalism has been the engine driving America and the global economies for over two centuries. Faber predicts its collapse will trigger global “wars, massive government-debt defaults, and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society.” Faber knows that capitalism is not working, capitalism has peaked, and the collapse of capitalism is “inevitable.”

When? He hesitates: “But what I don’t know is whether this final collapse, which is inevitable, will occur tomorrow, or in five or 10 years, and whether it will occur with the Dow at 100,000 and gold at $50,000 per ounce or even confiscated, or with the Dow at 3,000 and gold at $1,000.” But the end is inevitable, a historical imperative.

2. Nobody’s planning for a ‘Black Swan’

While the timing may be uncertain, the trigger is certain. Societies collapse because they fail to plan ahead, cannot act fast enough when a catastrophic crisis hits. Think “Black Swan” and read evolutionary biologist Jared Diamond’s “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.”

A crisis hits. We act surprised. Shouldn’t. But it’s too late: “Civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society’s demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power.”

Warnings are everywhere. Why not prepare? Why sabotage our power, our future? Why set up an entire nation to fail? Diamond says: Unfortunately “one of the choices has depended on the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they reach crisis proportions.”

Sound familiar? “This type of decision-making is the opposite of the short-term reactive decision-making that too often characterizes our elected politicians,” thus setting up the “inevitable” collapse. Remember, Greenspan, Bernanke, Bush, Paulson all missed the 2007-8 meltdown: It will happen again, in a bigger crisis.

3. Wall Street sacked Washington

Bogle warned of a growing three-part threat — a “happy conspiracy” — in “The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism:” “The business and ethical standards of corporate America, of investment America, and of mutual fund America have been gravely compromised.”

But since his book, “Wall Street America” went over to the dark side, got mega-greedy and took control of “Washington America.” Their spoils of war included bailouts, bankruptcies, stimulus, nationalizations and $23.7 trillion new debt off-loaded to the Treasury, Fed and American people.

Who’s in power? Irrelevant. The “happy conspiracy” controls both parties, writes the laws to suit its needs, with absolute control of America’s fiscal and monetary policies. Sorry Jack, but the “Battle for the Soul of Capitalism” really was lost.

4. When greed was legalized

Go see Michael Moore’s documentary, “Capitalism: A Love Story.” “Disaster Capitalism” author Naomi Klein recently interviewed Moore in The Nation magazine: “Capitalism is the legalization of this greed. Greed has been with human beings forever. We have a number of things in our species that you would call the dark side, and greed is one of them. If you don’t put certain structures in place or restrictions on those parts of our being that come from that dark place, then it gets out of control.”

Greed’s OK, within limits, like the 10 Commandments. Yes, the soul can thrive around greed, if there are structures and restrictions to keep it from going out of control. But Moore warns: “Capitalism does the opposite of that. It not only doesn’t really put any structure or restrictions on it. It encourages it, it rewards” greed, creating bigger, more frequent bubble/bust cycles.

It happens because capitalism is now in “the hands of people whose only concern is their fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders or to their own pockets.” Yes, greed was legalized in America, with Wall Street running Washington.

5. Triggering the end of our ‘life cycle’

Like Diamond, Faber also sees the historical imperative: “Every successful society” grows “out of some kind of challenge.” Today, the “life cycle” of capitalism is on the decline.

He asks himself: “How are you so sure about this final collapse?” The answer: “Of all the questions I have about the future, this is the easiest one to answer. Once a society becomes successful it becomes arrogant, righteous, overconfident, corrupt, and decadent … overspends … costly wars … wealth inequity and social tensions increase; and society enters a secular decline.” Success makes us our own worst enemy.

Quoting 18th century Scottish historian Alexander Fraser Tytler: “The average life span of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years” progressing from “bondage to spiritual faith … to great courage … to liberty … to abundance … to selfishness … to complacency … to apathy … to dependence and … back into bondage!”

Where is America in the cycle? “It is most unlikely that Western societies, and especially the U.S., will be an exception to this typical ‘society cycle.’ … The U.S. is somewhere between the phase where it moves ‘from complacency to apathy’ and ‘from apathy to dependence.'”

In short, America is a grumpy old man with hardening of the arteries. Our capitalism is near the tipping point, unprepared for a catastrophe, set up for collapse and rapid decline.

15 more clues capitalism lost its soul … is a disaster waiting to happen

Much more evidence litters the battlefield:

  1. Wall Street wealth now calls the shots in Congress, the White House
  2. America’s top 1% own more than 90% of America’s wealth
  3. The average worker’s income has declined in three decades while CEO compensation exploded over ten times
  4. The Fed is now the ‘fourth branch of government’ operating autonomously, secretly printing money at will
  5. Since Goldman and Morgan became bank holding companies, all banks are back gambling with taxpayer bailout money plus retail customer deposits
  6. Bill Gross warns of a “new normal” with slow growth, low earnings and stock prices
  7. While the White House’s chief economist retorts with hype of a recovery unimpeded by the “new normal”
  8. Wall Street’s high-frequency junkies make billions trading zombie stocks like AIG, FNMA, FMAC that have no fundamental value beyond a Treasury guarantee
  9. 401(k)s have lost 26.7% of their value in the past decade
  10. Oil and energy costs will skyrocket
  11. Foreign nations and sovereign funds have started dumping dollars, signaling the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency
  12. In two years federal debt exploded from $11.2 to $23.7 trillion
  13. New financial reforms will do little to prevent the next meltdown
  14. The “forever war” between Western and Islamic fundamentalists will widen
  15. As will environmental threats and unfunded entitlements

“America Capitalism” is a “Lost Soul” … we’ve lost our moral compass … the coming collapse is the end of an “inevitable” historical cycle stalking all great empires to their graves. Downsize your lifestyle expectations, trust no one, not even media.

Faber is uncertain about timing, we are not. There is a high probability of a crisis and collapse by 2012. The “Great Depression 2” is dead ahead. Unfortunately, there’s absolutely nothing you can do to hide from this unfolding reality or prevent the rush of the historical imperative.

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I am just shaking in my boots.

Oh, and if you are interested in hiring a green consultant…I hear these guys are pretty good.

 http://www.greenappleconsult.com/

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No Impact Man Slips A Little But That Is To Be Expected – It’s like losing weight

I know at first this story won’t seem to have much to do with the post that follows, but I wanted to lose weight one day. I did not need to. I am 6’3″ and 180 pounds. (blush on my drivers license it says 165) So I cut back on ye old intake. All I really wanted to do was drop 5 lbs. to 175 because my pants were getting a little tight in the waste (sorry waist). In a couple of weeks I got down to 176 lbs. I got distracted. An environmental issue got hot and I just lost track. When I got back to thinking about how much I weighed, I got on the scales and I weighed 180.5 lbs. In a week even though I cut down some I was at 182! In was then that I became very aware of the theory of “set points” and what happens when you disturb them…

Anyway you must remember the No Impact Guy…I did a post on him last year:

http://noimpactman.typepad.com/

Join No Impact Week video discussions here!

Graham Hill, founder of Treehugger.com, is participating in No Impact week, starting October 18, and he wrote on the Huffington Post:

Instead of edicts – depriving you of your car or forbidding drinking your latte from a paper cup – the No-Impact week brought to you by Colin Beavan and Huff Po is instead the opportunity to try out lifestyle strategies that just may be more fun than you thought.

With the shape of the earth and our complex society, we need lots of people coming up with lots of approaches.

I look at No-Impact week as carbon-cleansing experiment in which I get to see which of my lifestyle choices actually contribute to my happiness.

He’s right of course!  So join in!

Meanwhile, we’ll be having online video conversations every night of the week starting on Sunday at 5 PM EST, so tune in below. Sunday’s chat will be with Wood Turner of Climate’s Count on the topic of consumption and Monday’s (at 9PM EST) will be with Bill McKibben of 350 and Betsy Taylor of 1Sky on the topic of trash.

Hope to see you there.

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He had his own blog and organization that the Huffington Post helped start:

What is No Impact Project?

The No Impact Project is an international, environmental, nonprofit project, founded  in the spring of 2009. It was inspired by the No Impact Man book, film, and blog.

Mission

To empower citizens to make choices which better their lives and lower their environmental impact through lifestyle change, community action, and participation in environmental politics.

The No Impact Project was conceived by Colin Beavan, aka No Impact Man, following the success of his blog, book, and film, which chronicle his family’s year-long experiment living a zero-waste lifestyle in New York City. Central to his thesis is the notion that deep-seated individual behavior change leads to both cultural change and political engagement. Living low-impact provides a clear entry point into the environmental movement. This thesis is the bedrock of the No Impact Project.

Goals

  • Promote behavioral change
  • Enable the public to experience their own No Impact Experiment
  • Engage people who are not already tree-hugging, bicycle-riding, canvas-bag-toting, eco-warriors

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He Got a documentary out of it

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1280011/

No Impact Man: The Documentary

MOVIEmeter: ?
Down 23% in popularity this week. See why on IMDbPro.
Directors:

Laura Gabbert
Justin Schein

Contact:

View company contact information for No Impact Man: The Documentary on IMDbPro.

Genre:

Documentary

Tagline:

Saving the world, one family at a time.

Plot:

Follow the Manhattan-based Beavan family as they abandon their high consumption 5th Avenue lifestyle and try to live a year while making no net environmental impact. | add synopsis

NewsDesk:

Oscilloscope Laboratories plans on Making an ‘Impact’
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Then a book.. or was it the book then the documentary?

http://festival.sundance.org/2009/film_events/films/no_impact_man

NO IMPACT MAN

Then Colin turns things upside down. For his next book, he announces he’s becoming No Impact Man, testing whether making zero environmental impact adversely affects happiness. The hitch is he needs his wife, Michelle—an espresso-guzzling, Prada-worshipping Business Week writer—and their toddler to join the experiment.A year without electricity, cars, toilet paper, and nonlocal food isn’t going to be a walk in the park

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Then he got phat:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33357744/ns/us_news-environment/

After year without, family finds middle ground

No TV? Toilet paper? Perceived sacrifices end up being nothing of the sort

Letting go
When the year was over, Conlin and Beavan didn’t want to set any more rules for themselves. After all the restrictions, they wanted to finally let it all go and see what felt right.

Mostly, they stuck to buying their food at the farmer’s market. But if they were short on groceries after a late night at work, they would stop at the supermarket — despite the packaging on the food on the shelves, despite the distance it had traveled.

While the amount of garbage they produced increased from a single quart every four days to five gallons, this was a far cry from the 90 gallons they produced before the experiment. Their refrigerator is back on, but their freezer is gone.

They started buying olive oil and some seasonings, even though they’re not made nearby. They began saying yes when friends invited them out to dinner. And they started using toilet paper again — but now it was made from recycled paper.

Neither of them wanted to bring back their giant, 46-inch TV. But once a week or so, if they’re in the mood, they’ll watch a drama on a laptop.

It was an obvious choice to keep the rickshaw bikes they’d come to love — three-wheelers with space for groceries and a seat for Isabella. But now, when it rains, they sometimes take the subway.

The air conditioners once seemed like a necessity. But take them away, and the heat and the lack of electronic entertainment drove the family outside, where they spent most evenings at the fountain at Washington Square Park. They cooled off in the mist of the fountain, looked around at the virtual circus of performers who have made the public plaza their stage. They talked with neighbors.

No longer hunkered down in their family’s lonely bubble, they were out in the city. They loved

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So there are HUGE journalist temptations here. MSNBC take the “regaining there balance” approach like they were some extremists and now they have come more to the middle of the road. There are other approaches…like to “laugh and say they were destined to fail”. Or like they do with Ed Begley jr. and twitter like his wife, “isn’t he just the oddest sort”

But fresh off my bout with weight loss I say “way to go” on a tough test, and congratulations on not rebounding too far.

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Peak Oil To The Oil And Gas Crowd Is Like Turds In The Punch Bowl

Yup, they don’t like it much:

http://www.gjfreepress.com/article/20091014/OPINION/910139986/1021/NONE&parentprofile=1062

The fallacy of peak oil

The onset of this week in Denver has been witness to a conference hosted by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, a collection of hand-wringers, theorists, and computer-modelers (co-founded, incidentally, by none other than Randy Udall, brother of U.S. Senator Mark Udall), who subscribe to the proposition that the world has reached, or will soon reach, the point of maximum oil production. This historic juncture, the theory asserts, will serve to signal the beginning of the end of the fossil-fueled society, as worldwide demand transcends supply, resulting in a steady, irreversible decline in oil production, terminating at the moment when the very last thimbleful of crude is cajoled out of the ground.

Like virtually all successful fallacies, this one incorporates a large measure of truth; as a finite commodity, the world oil supply will, eventually, be exhausted. Insofar as this is the case, the theory is valid — all other factors remaining fixed, there WILL come a point in time where demand outstrips supply, and production thereby enters a terminal decline phase. The question, of course, is WHEN this will occur.

The most strident peak-oilers postulate that the date is imminent; indeed, many say it has already come and gone. The problem with their reasoning is best illustrated through an example from economic history.

In 1803, Thomas Robert Malthus presented the second edition of his “Essay on the Principle of Population.” In it, he laid out his theory that the rate of population growth would outpace the rate of increase in the food supply. He predicted that famine would ravage the earth in short order.

What Malthus forgot to consider was the role of technological advances in the food production industry. The Agricultural revolution spurred by improved tools, seeds and techniques, enabled many more people to be fed by the labor of many fewer people (and on less acreage).

In a similar vein, the proponents of peak oil tend to overlook some key factors: advances in drilling, exploration, production, and conveyance of oil and natural gas have served to make available sources which as little as a decade ago were considered unrecoverable, and hence not included on peak prediction spreadsheets. Horizontal and directional drilling capabilities, breakthroughs in well logging and evaluation technologies, and advances in production techniques serve as a few examples of innovations which have increased accessibility to, and improved recovery of, hitherto unobtainable resources.

Also conveniently ignored in the petro-doomsday scenarios, are the roles played by unconventional sources, such as oil sand, oil shale, and tight gas formations. For instance, Canada’s oil sands, which at last count hold more than 170 billion barrels of recoverable oil located in northern Alberta, were thought, 40 years ago, to be too expensive and technologically prohibitive to produce on a widespread, commercial scale. Today, oil sands production, both through mining, and in situ (in place) production, using modern techniques such as Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, accounts for nearly 10 percent of U.S. oil imports, or half of Canadian oil exports. And conservative estimates place the number of recoverable barrels in our own oil shale at between 500 billion and 1.1 trillion (with a ‘T’). To put that in perspective, consider that the lower number represents roughly triple the proven resources in the Middle East.

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I think you get the idea…but apologists for the renewable industry? Wow I never would have guessed that.

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Peak Oil, Peak Food, Peak People, Peak Water Or Peak Sex – Every finite resource runs out

I don’t run much about Peak Oil. Don’t get me wrong. I read their best web postings and sometimes I even publish some of the stuff they report on.

http://www.peakoil.com/

I rarely ever post stuff directly from the “Peak Oil” perspective for the same reasons that I do not post “end of days” stuff. They are BOTH true. That is OIL will run out and the Earth will come to an end but the predictiveness is problematic to say the least. For sure Peak Oil will come true before Peak Days, till either happens though…well the less said the better. They are having a conference in Denver and I thought I would post a couple of pieces so it doesn’t seem like I don’t like them.

Is there such a thing as Peak Sex? Well think about it (:)) there IS only so much that you can have.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50359

http://transitionculture.org/2009/10/09/whither-resilience-and-transition-why-peak-oil-has-yet-to-outlive-its-usefulness/

9 Oct 2009

Whither Resilience and Transition? Why ‘Peak Oil’ Has Yet to Outlive its Usefulness

stress_city

It’s been a fascinating few days.  Early in the week, Nate Hagens and Sharon Astyk were suggesting the perhaps the term ‘peak oil’ has outlived its usefulness, given that we have almost certainly peaked, and that the peak oil movement needs to shift its focus.  It echoed something I wrote a while ago, likening ASPO and the wider peak oil movement to a Loch Ness Monster Society, dedicated to establishing the existence of this fabled creature.  They organise conferences, scientific searches of the loch, write papers and journals, and then one day, an entire, intact Loch Ness Monster washes up on the shore.  Then what?  They have no reason to exist any longer, their whole raison d’etre vanishes overnight.

However, I don’t think it is that straightforward.  For me, what we are seeing, taking a step back and looking in the longer time context, is a series of pulses.  Peak oil won’t go away as an issue, it pulses in and out of the collective consciousness and hopefully will increasingly come to underpin Government policy-making.  In July 2008, peak oil was pulsing as the oil price hit record highs, and issues around economics were in the background.  Now, economics has been the key pulse for the last year or so, and peak oil has been pushed off the side of the stage until the last few days.  If Colin Campbell’s original analysis, elaborated by David Strahan in his talk at the 2009 Transition Network conference, is correct, what looks likely is that the two will pulse alternately, as any kind of economic recovery increases demand, which raises the oil prices, which dampens economic recovery, which reduces demand and lowers prices, which increases demand, and so on and so on.  Until the connection between the two becomes clear, they will continue to pulse alternately.

Over the last couple of days, the peak oil pulse has become most prominent, with two excellent reports which will hopefully give Ed Miliband a lot to think about, and dampen the complacency brought about by Malcolm Wicks’ dreadful and fairly pointless report on UK energy security.  The first report, by the UKERC, the UK’s premiere research establishment, sets out to answer the question “what evidence is there to support the proposition that the global supply of ‘conventional oil’ will be constrained by physical depletion before 2030?”, via. a review of 500 published papers on the subject. Its findings are striking (you can read David Strahan’s excellent analysis of it here).  It argues that there is a ’significant risk’ of conventional oil production peaking before 2020, and brands those who argue that it will come some time beyond 2030 as being ‘at best optimistic and at worst implausible’.

ellipse ellipse ellipse as they say in the citation business:

Then today, Ofgem, which regulates electricity and gas markets in the UK, publishes its Project Discovery: energy market scenarios report.  It generates 4 scenarios about where energy prices might go between now and 2020, concluding that its worst case scenario means a 60% increase in energy bills.  In order to be prepared for the decline in UK gas supplies, the shift to low carbon energy generation and the phasing out of nuclear plants, the UK needs to be prepared to invest £200 billion.  Under all of its scenarios, fuel bills will rise, and interestingly, they note that the slower the economic recovery, the less steep the rise in prices.  It is a shot across the bows of what it sees as Government’s keeping of the issue on the long finger, and failure to invest (although it does put nuclear centre stage as part of the solution).

This morning on Radio 4’s Today Programme, shadow energy secretary Greg Clark and energy analyst David Hunter discussed the implications of the Ofgem report with presenter John Humphries.  It was a fascinating piece, mostly along the lines of “how has the Government let this slide for so long”, with Clark trying to make out that the Conservatives have been onto this for years, in spite of the lack of any evidence for this.  When asked what the Tories’ response would be, he replied ‘clean coal’, a technology which Humphries had to point out, doesn’t actually exist yet, a phenomena Clark had tried to sidestep by describing it as ‘pre-commercial’.  No talk, of course, of reducing demand, conservation, rethinking supply chains, of resilience.

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Righto, the Brits are so fascinating to read and watch. Kinda like watching Gold Finches feeding upside down.

While the Americans just call each other names…

http://www.thedenverdailynews.com/article.php?aID=6010

Will oil demand soon outgrow supply?

Peak oil believers think so, but oil, gas companies say that theory is bogus

Gene Davis, DDN Staff Writer

Tuesday, October 13, 2009


A “peak oil” conference wrapping up today in Denver is sounding the alarm that oil demand will soon outgrow supply, posing a potential economic threat to the country’s economic well being.

However, most oil and gas companies say the peak oil theory is bogus and that there are plenty of the natural resource to go around.

Mayor John Hickenlooper is among the peak oil believers. The former geologist told conference attendees yesterday that it’s not a question of if the world will reach peak oil ” meaning the time of maximum oil production ” but when it will happen.

“We cannot afford to ignore the issue,” he said in a statement. “By anticipating the expected rapid changes in both supply and demand, we can begin to frame the issue not only as a challenge but also as an economic opportunity.”

But The Colorado Oil and Gas Association, for one, doesn’t think Hickenlooper’s school of thought has much credibility. 

“For more than five decades, various individuals have claimed that the world had reached, or was nearing, peak oil,” said a statement from the group. “With more than 200 new oil discoveries in the last year alone, it’s safe to say that peak oil enthusiasts are every bit as wrong today as they have been for the past 50 years.”

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas has been hosting the International Peak Oil Conference at Denver’s Sheraton Hotel since Sunday. The event has featured more than 70 speakers who have talked about “energy, oil, and our future.”

David Bowden, ASPOG executive director, said that after maximum oil production is reached, the United States economy might have difficulties growing without the constant input of steady and inexpensive oil.

As a result, Bowden is urging for people to “conserve, conserve, conserve” and shy away from “our monolithic oil consumption habits.” Although the United States has around 5 percent of the world’s population, the country uses approximately 25 percent of the world’s oil supplies, largely because of automobile usage.

Bowden supports light rail projects like FasTracks instead of building more roads or expanding highways. FasTracks is a multi-billion dollar transit expansion plan to build 122 miles of new commuter rail and light rail.

“Even though FasTracks has its challenges and the system is a bit limited right now, as oil supplies tightens and the prices go up, it will be necessary,” he said.

Critics have continually slammed FasTracks for running behind schedule and over budget.  

“(FasTracks) was such a faulty fiscal plan, it’s inexcusable,” said Jon Caldera of the libertarian Independence Institute earlier this year.

The recession and falling prices at the pump have taken the oil and gas issue out of the headlines. “But when the country pulls out of the recession and starts consuming more oil and growing populations in countries like China and India do the same the issue will become intensified, especially if oil production drops”, Bowden said.

“Anyone who tries to predict the timing and price of oil is engaged in a fools errand,” he said. “But we see the long-term writing on the wall.”

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Oh that is so BIBLICAL:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_writing_on_the_wall

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Gasoline Down And It Will Never Be As High Again – You could call this peak gasoline but you would be wrong

There are 2 reasons for a product to run its course in a capitalist society. 1. the resource runs out like carrier pigeons in the wild or  whale oil, 2.  they become unfashionable or unsaleable. You could think of this as Peak Raccoon Skin or Peak Hats. If people quit buying the stuff, the manufacturers have to quit making it. Many times the manufacturers don’t even admit that their way of  life has ended they simply vanish…Can anyone say Pet Rock? The immediate effect of the recent Cash For Clunkers program was to immediately and permanently decrease the demand for gasoline in the US.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/10/06/peak-gasoline-is-here.aspx

Peak Gasoline Is Here


The jury’s still out on peak oil, but the concept of peak gasoline has some very credible proponents.

Last Thursday, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) CEO Rex Tillerson argued that U.S. gasoline consumption peaked in 2007. In his words, “motor vehicle gasoline demand is down, is headed down, and is going to continue to head down.”

This isn’t a new position for the prominent oil patch poobah. Back in April, The Wall Street Journal cited Exxon’s belief that U.S. light duty gasoline demand will drop by 22% by 2030.

Tillerson isn’t alone in the peak-gasoline camp, either. The government’s own estimates indicate that gasoline consumption peaked in 2007, at 371.2 million gallons per day. Cambridge Energy Research Associates has concluded that 2007 was probably the peak, barring a collapse in the oil price.

The main drivers (ahem) of this trend are the dovetailing desires for reduced oil dependence, lower emissions, and better fuel efficiency. The high oil prices of 2008 — and even today’s prices, which are quite high by historical standards — have been a major force to shift consumer preferences toward more compact and efficient vehicles, including hybrids. Lithium-ion battery whiz A123 (Nasdaq: AONE) certainly has high oil prices — and government greenbacks — to thank for its recent warm reception on Wall Street.

A parallel development is the army of venture capital-backed science projects seeking all manner of petroleum alternatives to stick in your fuel tank. Renewable fuel standards — optimistic, given current funding levels –hold out the promise of a robust end market for these products.

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Yah know how I know?

http://philadelphia.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/stories/2009/10/05/daily22.html

Sunoco idling Eagle Point plant, furloughing 400 workers

Philadelphia Business Journal – by Peter Key Staff Writer

Sunoco Inc. said Tuesday it is indefinitely idling its Eagle Point refinery in Westville, N.J., and furloughing all 400 workers there.

The Philadelphia-based oil refiner and gasoline retailer also said it is halving its quarterly dividend to 15 cents from 30 cents, starting with the first quarter of next year.

Sunoco (NYSE:SUN) said it decided to idle Eagle Point in response to the margin pressure faced by refiners from the sagging economy, weak demand and increased global refining capacity.

The company said it will shift production from Eagle Point to its refineries in Philadelphia and Marcus Hook, Pa. It said it will be able to produce the same amount of refined products at those two refineries that it had been producing at them plus Eagle Point and still meet demand.

Sunoco said it will keep Eagle Point idle until market conditions improve and will consider other options for the refinery, including using it to produce alternative fuels.

The company said it will continue to pay its contribution to medical benefits for the Eagle Point employees for the duration of their furlough. It also will offer them a voluntary severance program that includes job-placement assistance and retraining.

Sunoco said it expects to incur pre-tax charges of $475 million to $500 million, most of which will be noncash, from idling Eagle Point. It will record most in the recently ended quarter and the rest in the current quarter.

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It must be tough to become obsolete.

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Dow Plans To Launch Solar Power Shingles – Your roof becomes a generator

From an environmental perspective  CIGS is a little worrisome and it ain’t exactly “solar paint” like they have been promising, but it could open the market for a whole new range of products.

http://www.dailytech.com/Dow+Puts+Traditional+Panels+to+Shame+With+New+Solar+Shingle/article16424.htm

Dow Puts Traditional Panels to Shame With New Solar Shingle
Jason Mick (Blog)October 6, 2009 12:12 AM

 


Dow’s solar shingles are poised to put the solar panel market out of business. The unobtrusive designs produce power more cheaply than traditional panels, are produced domestically, and require no specialized skills to install, other than standard roofing experience.  (Source: Beanieville Blog)


The new cells uses CIGS thin films, encased in plastic. The resulting design has lower efficiencies that traditional panels, but is cheaper to produce, lowering the cost per watt by 10 to 15 percent over traditional panels.  (Source: University of Strathclyde)Product should shake up the power industry open up new era for solar

Inventors and designers have long envisioned a roof or window that produced solar power affordably.  However, until now no company had mass produced such a device.  Instead, the consumer market was dominated by rooftop panels which require a fair amount of maintenance, are relatively fragile, and are rather expensive.
That’s all about to change, however.  Dow Chemical Co., one of America’s most successful chemical firms, is launching the first mass-produced consumer solar shingle next year and will be planning a wide-scale rollout by 2011.  The firm foresees a booming $5B USD market for the shingles.

The new shingles use a thin film of copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) to capture solar energy.  As a result, the cells which are encased in molded plastic are relatively flexible, unlike their photovoltaic cousins.  And while these elements (such as indium) are quite expensive in bulk, they’re used extremely sparingly, keeping costs low.

The shingles one weakness is that they manage just over 10 percent efficiencies, less than traditional panels.  Despite this smaller generation capacity, they produce power at a 10 to 15 percent lower cost on a per watt basis due to production and installation cost savings.

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Or in this Reuter’s piece

Dow sees huge market in solar shingles

Mon Oct 5, 2009 8:57pm EDT

 

By Matt Daily

 

(see above poster’s note)

Dow Solar Solutions said it expects “an enthusiastic response” from roofing contractors for the new shingles, since they require no specialized skills or knowledge of solar systems to install.

The new product is the latest advance in “Building Integrated Photovoltaic” (BIPV) systems, in which power-generating systems are built directly into the traditional materials used to construct buildings.

BIPV systems are currently limited mostly to roofing tiles, which operate at lower efficiencies than solar panels and have so far been too expensive to gain wide acceptance.

Dow’s shingle will be about 30 to 40 percent cheaper than current BIPV systems.

The Dow shingles can be installed in about 10 hours, compared with 22 to 30 hours for traditional solar panels, reducing the installation costs that make up more than 50 percent of total system prices.

The product will be rolled out in North America through partnerships with home builders such as Lennar Corp and Pulte Homes Inc before marketing is expanded, Palmieri said.

Dow received $20 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to help develop its BIPV products.

The company also produces fluids used in concentrated solar systems, in which sunlight is used to generate heat that produces steam to power a turbine.

In addition, it supplies materials used to help manufacture photovoltaic panels and increase their efficiency.

Dow shares were up 4.4 percent at $24.67 on the New York Stock Exchange in afternoon trading.

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But this guy doesn’t like the NEW Windows 7, iPhones, nor HYBRID cars…let alone SOLAR shingles. Because people won’t understand them or they have functions customers don’t want. Want to bet he is heavily invested in oil and coal stocks?

http://247wallst.com/2009/10/06/the-solar-shingle-and-the-false-promise-of-new-technology/

Technology is now clearly so good in many industries that it has surpassed the needs of many customers. Smart phones do scores of functions that most owners do not want. Many of these consumers opt for a simpler and less expensive phone. An Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone may carry a great deal of status with it, but for people who only want to make phone calls it is a luxury that they will not pay for.

Dow Chemical (NASDAQ:DOW) has a new piece of technology that it forecasts will have sales of $5 billion in 2015 and $10 billion in 2020. The $10 billion is only a little less than Dow’s quarterly sales today. The product that will drive all of this revenue is a rooftop shingle that converts sunlight into electricity. Reuters says that “The shingle will use thin-film cells of copper indium gallium diselenide, a photovoltaic material that typically is more efficient at turning sunlight into electricity than traditional polysilicon cells.” The shingle probably works well, but Dow should be more careful about what it has to say about future sales. Most shingles that are used today work well. Once they are hammered on a roof, they can last for decades without being replaced. They do not have to be linked to any other structure in the home. The cost of a single shingle is easy to calculate because it does not come with a set of instructions that says “batteries required” or “do not use this in temperatures above 75 degrees or below 30 degrees”

A solar shingle is a part of a complex and expensive system which involves rewiring the way that a home gets its electricity, stores it, and uses it over the course of a day. A shingle that converts sunlight into electrical energy requires engineering and storage that doubtlessly costs thousands of dollars and has to be installed by a specialist. The homeowner has to decide how long it will take him to get that investment back compared to the cost of simply getting electricity from the local utility. There is also the issue of what happens if twenty days per month are overcast. The solar shingle is not a shingle; it is a part of a complex and expensive system that most homeowners can neither understand nor evaluate financially.

The solar shingle is a revolutionary idea and it could change the way people get energy to run their homes. But, Dow may find out that it sells almost none of the news shingles. They may break when it gets icy or blow off in a storm the way normal shingles which are not tied to a home’s electricity system do. Consumers, at least a great many of them, will think these solar shingles might pose some kind of fire or health hazard. They could be right.

Dow Chemical should avoid saying it will sell $10 billion of anything that the public has not seen, even if it is just chemicals

Douglas A. McIntyre

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