Oil And Gas Speculators Are 15-30 % Of The Price

Everyonce in awhile the Peak Oil website finds a real gem of an economic analysis or some other thing related to energy markets and energy consumption. The following is a dandy with the source website as well.

http://peakoil.com/

http://www.econmatters.com/2011/05/speculation-does-not-explain-high-oil.html

Friday, May 6, 2011

Speculation Does Not Explain High Oil and Gasoline Prices? Please!!

By EconMatters

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude Oil futures traded at its lowest in almost two months in New York on Thursday, May 5 in its biggest selloff in two years, plunging 8.6% on the day to below the $100 mark (Fig. 1).  Brent crude on ICE also dropped as much as $12.17, or 10%, which was the largest in percentage terms not seen since the Lehman Brothers financial crisis, and the largest ever in absolute terms, according to FT.

The epic waterfall was partly due to the combination of a strengthening dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he wouldn’t raise interest rates, and a surging U.S. first time jobless claim that sent oil, silver and other commodities plunging.

Big Speculators Moving Out

There has been a long debate about how much of a role speculators play in the oil market.  However, this latest big price move in one day strongly suggests something more than fundamentals is at work.

That is, some big players (i.e. speculators) decided to move out of commodities, either to take profits, or for risk off trades, as crude and gasoline market fundamentals have not changed much since the start of the year to warrant such a run-up of prices in recent months (Fig. 1).

Link Between Oil Storage & Speculation??

Some, like Ezra Klein at The Washington Post, and Jerry Taylor and Peter Van Doren, senior fellows at the Cato Institute, have suggested that speculators are not the ones causing high oil and gasoline prices.

For example, in this article, Klein partly quoted Michael Greenstone, an energy economist at MIT, and concluded that:

“Speculators make money by pulling oil off the market, putting it in inventory, and selling it later…So if you’re seeing speculation, you should be seeing a massive run-up in inventory. And we are seeing a bit of an inventory bump, particularly in recent weeks. But not enough of one.”

Taylor and Van Doren also drew a similar conclusion in an article at Forbes stating that since there’s not a massive increase in oil storage to cause a physical supply shortage, so do ‘put away the torches and pitchforks’ as speculators are not to blame for the rise in oil and gasoline price.

Reality Check – Shorts & Paper Barrels

I guess all four gentlemen live right next door to the U.S. Fed in the ivory tower and just as detached from reality.

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More tomorrow.

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10 Commandments Of The Environment – God issues new list

1. Respect mother Earth and all her creatures.

2. Make no laws that contradict this.

3. Thou shall not pollute.

4. Thou shall give a hoot.

5. Waste nothing nothing not even the squeal of a pig

6. Buy nothing you need not.

7. Plant a garden and eat from it

8. Create a compost heap.

9. Walk or ride your bike as much as you are able.

10. Respect your fellow humans with replacement rate birthings.

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More next week.

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I Renew My Vows – To save the environment from mankind

This is so beautiful, you must see it to appreciate it.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/04/incredibly-impossibly-beautiful-time-lapse-video/

Incredibly, impossibly beautiful time lapse video

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I’ve been posting a lot of time lapse videos lately, and they’re so amazing I keep thinking they can’t possibly get any more beautiful.

I keep thinking wrong.

“El Cielo de Canarias” (Canary Sky) is simply, unbelievably breathtaking.

Wow. I mean, wow. Daniel López is a gifted photographer. While looking at his photographs, my jaw literally dropped. They are that extraordinary.

Many years ago I visited La Palma, one of the Canary Islands, for a meeting. In the distance we could sometimes see the very top of Mt. Teide, seen in this video, poking over the clouds. It was so unearthly and captivating, and López has captured that feeling here. This video has everything! The fluid motion of the clouds, a double rainbow (yes, yes, I know), a corona around the Sun (not the Sun’s atmosphere, but a lovely optical effect from water droplets in the clouds), standing-wave lenticular clouds, even a Green Flash! Watch the stars as they wheel across the view; can you spot the Pleiades, the Andromeda Galaxy?

As many of these videos as I have seen, I’m still looking forward to more from Sr. López. This one is absolutely stunning.

Tip o’ the lens cap to Felipe Gallego.

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Could not get the video to go up but go to the website and see. More tomorrow.

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Harvey Koplo Would Like Your Support – He is riding his bike for a cause

Long time friend and supporter of Community Energy Systems issued a call to support him as he rides to raise money for a worthy cause. This organization rarely ever comments on health issues but for him there is an exception. Put out the word if you can.

Support Me in Tour de Cure!

I will be cycling in the American Diabetes Association’s Tour de Cure fundraising event. If you wish, please support me with a donation by selecting the “Sponsor Me” button. Our efforts will help set the pace in the fight against diabetes.

Help Make a Difference in the fight against diabetes!

Each mile I ride, and the funds I raise will be used in the fight to prevent and cure diabetes and to improve the lives of all people affected by diabetes.

No matter how small or large, your generous gift will help improve the lives of nearly 24 million Americans who suffer from diabetes, in the hope that future generations can live in a world without this disease. Together, we can all make a difference!

Click here to get to my page:

http://main.diabetes.org/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=7579&px=6714985

Thank you for making a generous contribution to this cause!

>> Harv <<

Harv Koplo
Avrom Systems
Springfield, IL
217-899-9175
www.avromsystems.com

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More local stuff tomorrow if I can.

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Shout Out For Starhill Forest Arboretum – May 7th is their playday

This is shaping up to be a very local week of posting. This is kind of unusual but fun. Please join Eddie and Guy at Starhill Arboretum to enjoy the spring growth and what your support has brought to fruition.

http://www.starhillforest.com/

Starhillforest@aol.com” <Starhillforest@aol.com> Add sender to Contacts

To:
dougnic55@yahoo.com
Greetings
Things are green and blooming….and still moist….at the Arboretum. And the bluebirds have babies! Let’s hope for a beautiful afternoon on Saturday, May 7. Stop by and spend time relaxing at Starhill Forest Arboretum between 1 to 4 PM. You’ll have an opportunity to stroll, hike or just sit and enjoy the beautiful surroundings.
There will be tree give-aways for members of the Friends of Starhill Forest organization, a raffle at 3:30 PM for all participants to win rare or unusual trees, and an opportunity to learn more about the plant collections and upcoming activities at the Arboretum. Spring 2011 work day volunteers will also receive bonus raffle tickets.
A special highlight will be tours of the newly constructed field lab. This year’s Illinois College interns, who arrive later this month, are excited about having a “headquarters”…but not as excited as Alana McKean, Arboretum manager.
Check out the online photo albums of spring at Starhill Forest by going to www.StarhillForest.com.
For more information about May 7, contact Alana@StarhillForest.com
Hope to see you on May 7th.

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The Illinois Stewardship Alliance Needs Your Help

I hardly ever do this. Raise money for another organization. But these people are so cool and so important, I say Open Your Wallets People.

ISA logo
Greetings!
I am writing to you today to make a serious plea for your financial support for Illinois Stewardship Alliance (ISA). ISA is the only statewide advocacy organization dedicated to advancing local food systems in Illinois and we can’t do it without your help now.

ISA is a small non-profit: we employ 2 full time and 2 part-time staff yet we are doing so much to support local food systems from Springfield to Washington DC.  Current initiatives include:

·         The recent formation of the Illinois Local Food and Farm Grassroots Policy Advisory Committee to provide a forum for local food producers, local food/sustainable agriculture organizations and citizens to discuss how policies impact Illinois’ local food systems and how to address them.

·         The Campaign for Cottage Food supports aspiring local food entrepreneurs by permitting home processing for low-risk foods like jams, jellies and baked goods.

·         Buy Fresh Buy Local Central Illinois – We are gearing up for our fourth year of spreading the “Buy Fresh Buy Local” message and expanding to cover 34 counties in central Illinois. The campaign connects local food producers with restaurants, retailers, consumers and others looking for local food to encourage support of local farmers and increase the economic viability of small farms.

·         Local Flavors, our successful farm-to-restaurant series is going statewide!  This August we plan to hold events across the state, from barbecue joints to white table cloth restaurants, helping to build relationships between farmers and buyers.

·         ISA was thrilled to announce the first round of18 Golden Beet Awards to recognize the innovative activities bringing local foods to Illinois communities and raise awareness about the important work happening in schools, at farmers markets and .

·         The Springfield Area Local Food Task Force conducted an economic impact study and we are spreading the word about how we can boost our local economy ($100 million in new farm income if residents from Sangamon and surrounding counties purchased just 15% of their food from local farmers).  The Task Force formed a sub-committee who is organizing a Farm-to-School Summit to be held in Springfield in the fall of 2011.

ISA staff is also providing leadership and ensuring grassroots representation on the Illinois Local Food, Farms and Jobs Council, Illinois Farm to School Network Advisory Committee, Illinois Sustainable Agriculture and Research Education Professional Development Program Advisory Committee and more.

We have set a short-term fundraising goal of $17,500 to address to maintain operations until additional funding comes through.  We currently have raised $7,280 of that total and are seeking $5,000 in sponsorships. We have several strategies for reaching our goal and part of that is asking for your help.  We need to raise $5,220 from direct donations and memberships from people like you; people who care about where their food comes from and want to support Illinois small farms and local foods.

Click here to make a donation today.

Click here to become a member.

Sincerely,

Lindsay Record

Executive Director

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More tomorrow.

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Last Day On Earth Day – Its a twofer for Friday

From opposite ends of the spectrum.

http://www.springfield.k12.il.us/schools/lawrence/?p=126&b=58&i=161901

Plant a Tree with LEC!

April 11, 2011

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Springfield, Illinois – Lawrence Education Center will distribute trees to students in order to celebrate Earth Day. During the event, students will be educated about trees and how they help the environment. The trees will be given to students along with a postcard to give back to the Lawrence Education Center that will mark the location of where the trees are planted. The school will create a map that will include the location of the trees that were planted. This event is made possible from the Illinois Department of Transportation who is teaming up with a national initiative called Living Land and Waters.

Students who want a tree to plant can come to the library when they are finished with classes for the day on the following dates:

Thursday, April 14, 2011 Room 109 , Lawrence Memorial Library, Michele Romence
Friday, April 15, 2011 Room 109 , Lawrence Memorial Library, Michele Romence

Earth Day is Friday, April 22, 2011.

Click on the map to the right to see where our trees were planted!

1900 West Monroe St., Springfield, IL 62704
217/525-3000   Fax 217/525-3005   TDD 217/525-3023
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http://www.sj-r.com/breaking/x1225332212/Quinn-speaks-at-Earth-Day-transportation-summit

Quinn speaks at Earth Day transportation summit

Photos

Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn announces at a news conference that Illinois plans to repair more than 3,200 miles of road and replace or fix 611 bridges over the next six years as part of the latest update to the state road program Thursday, April 7, 2011 in Chicago. (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)

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CHICAGO — Gov. Pat Quinn wants to see electric cars in the state fleet.

Quinn talked about transportation at an Earth Day summit in Chicago on Tuesday.

In addition to electric cars, Quinn says he’d also like to see a universal card system for public transportation and Wi-Fi on the commuter rail system Metra. He was the opening speaker at a seminar that featured state and local transportation agencies.

Quinn says Illinois is working to encourage electric vehicle manufacturers to bid for state vehicle business. He says one place they’d fit in are as vehicles on the state’s university campuses.

Quinn says the rising cost of gas makes electric cars even more appealing. He says a proliferation of charging stations is the key to successfully deploying electric vehicles.

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More next week.

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Solar Plane Will Make First European Flight – Actually land at a real airport

While the Solar Impulse has flown around the world it has never landed at a major airport or filed a real flight plan. This is too cool for words. I know this is not an Earth Day thing but it should be.

http://www.solarimpulse.com/blog/blog.php?lang=en&group=media

Solar Impulse on stand-by from Monday

author: Bernard Schopfer

2011-04-28

In these last few weeks the entire Solar Impulse team has been busy doing “test flights” in the Payerne area, to test the satellite communication systems developed by Swisscom, and also the air traffic integration procedures. The support received from the aviation authorities in the overflight and destination countries has been extremely positive and constructive.

For the European solar flight campaign the Solar Impulse team, sponsored by the European Commission, has chosen Brussels as the 1st international destination. The airplane will be shown in the European capital from 23 to 29 May 2011 and will then attempt to reach Paris-Le Bourget, where it is expected as a “Special Guest” at the 49th International Paris Air Show.

“These tests have been extremely successful”, says an elated Bertrand Piccard. “Now, here we are in the definitive phase: it’s no longer a question of tests, but the real thing. And the next flights will not be made in the “familiar cocoon” of Payerne aerodrome, but in the whole of Europe…” Rather like a sailing ship that has undergone coastal trials, and is now set to cross its first ocean!

“We will be in stand-by mode from Monday”, explains André Borschberg, who will pilot the HB-SIA between Payerne and Brussels. “And we definitely mean to take the first opportunity that comes along, since we can never be sure of the weather conditions and whether they will allow us to do this flight on a particular date. With Solar Impulse we are confined to what we can do with the technology at the present time, and safety is our number one priority.”

Bernard

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More tomorrow.

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The Springfield Earth Awareness Fair Is On May 7th

This event used to be the weekend after Earth Day and was Springfield’s celebration of it. Several years ago the organizers decided to break that pattern and hold it at different venues and at different times. I am “jake” with that. As the original organizer of the first day said, “Everyday should be an Earth Day”. This year it is at our cool new park with its geothermal heating and cooling, AND its wind turbine. YAH!

http://cityofspringfieldillinois.blogspot.com/2010/04/18th-annual-earth-awareness-fair.html

City of Springfield, Illinois

Monday, April 12, 2010

18TH ANNUAL EARTH AWARENESS FAIR

The 18th Annual Earth Awareness Fair will be held Saturday, April 24 from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. at the Old State Capitol. “Springfield’s annual Earth Awareness Fair is the oldest continuous Earth Day celebration in Illinois and we are proud to host this all-ages event,” said Mayor Davlin.

Information on eco-friendly choices such as recycling, energy efficiency, native plants/ habitat and water conservation will be available. Exhibits, giveaways, games and crafts will be offered, all with an environmental message. Live music will be provided by local musicians Tom Irwin and Thornhill. A bicycle rally will be held with bicyclists gathering at the Old State Capitol at 12:00 for a ride around the downtown area to raise awareness of alternative forms of transportation.
Rain barrels will again be available for sale at the Fair.

Using a rain barrel is an excellent way to lessen the demand on our drinking water systems and reduce energy consumption by not having to purify ground water for residential irrigation purposes. Area homeowners can save money while helping the environment and reducing storm water run-off by capturing water in rain barrels.

Admission to the Earth Awareness Fair is free. It will be held rain, or shine. Join us for the 40th anniversary of Earth Day!

at Monday, April 12, 2010

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More tomorrow.

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The Week After Earth Day – Chernobyl

I have wanted to say some things about the situation at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant for awhile. The content you see in the Media are just so bogus. First they want to prattle on about a melt down and the chances of an explosion “like Chernobyl”.

I scream at the television, “The reactors scrammed or were off line”. Ten Mile Island and Chernobyl were both online when their catastrophes occurred. Shutting down 10 mile was their big challenge. Chernobyl was an atomic explosion that sent material 4 or 5 miles in the air. Their big challenge was preventing a China Syndrome. Fukushima was always going to be a local nonthreatening event. Dramatic – Tragic – Fool hearty but nonetheless local.

The media want to prittle prattle along about reactor types and containment vessels. They never talk about powerhouse design. Reactors do one thing they generate steam. That is it. And that is why I am opposed to nuclear power in general. There are so many simpler and safer ways to generate steam that nuclear power is a joke. Once promoted by national governments because they wanted to piggy back their nuclear weapons programs on to “local power programs”. So we will use US powerplants an example of power house design and then compare disasters.

Yes, 10 powerplants in the US use the Mark 1 reactors like what were in 4 of the reactors at Fukushima. But in the US there is “triple containment” and “plain water” steam turbine loops. That means that when 10 Mile Island malfunctioned they simply vented a bunch of radioactive steam which immediately killed about 100 people and eventually killed about 300 babies and then turned the reactor off (scrammed). The temperatures soared to 5000 degress, the fuel melted, the cooling system worked and there it sits today with a puddle of melted fuel in the bottom of the reactor vessel. That should have been the end of Nuclear Power as we know it. At Fukushima they have “double containment” powerhouses that uses radioactive water to drive their turbines. All nuclear reactors have to be shielded or sheathed  for people to be able to get close to them to operate them. So even Chernobyl had a “single” containment vessel. In Fukushima they had that and a containment pad. Actually the pad was kind of ingenious. It consists of varying layers of concrete, steel, boron and lead. This was supposed to make a China Syndrome impossible because it would self seal the waste if it tried to melt through. BUT they used that argument to actually cheapen and make more dangerous their powerhouse designs. They provided no exterior containment system and they drove their turbines with radioactive steam. Additionally they built the cooling systems on one pad and their power generation systems on a separate pad guaranteeing that the cooling systems would break in an earthquake. So yes, there were explosions at Fukushima but not at the dynamite tonnage level that happened at Chernobyl. Fukushima was like a fire cracker.

While Fukushima is a local event that was a disaster waiting to happen, Chernobyl was a momentous international disaster waiting for someone to pull the trigger. It was a graphite reactor with a single containment wall, sitting by a lake right at the water table with an inadequate cooling system. Pull the trigger they did. The point being the Media does not understand Nuclear Power any better than the public does and yet this “magic genie” produces 20% of this countries electricity. Things have gotta change.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster

Chernobyl disaster

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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This article is about the 1986 nuclear plant accident in Ukraine. For more, see Chernobyl (disambiguation).
Chernobyl disaster
Chernobyl Disaster.jpg 
The nuclear reactor after the disaster. Reactor 4 (center). Turbine building (lower left). Reactor 3 (center right).
Date 26 April 1986
Time 01:23:45 (Moscow Time UTC+3)
Location Pripyat, Ukrainian SSR, Soviet Union, now Ukraine
 

Location of Chernobyl nuclear power plant

 

The abandoned city of Pripyat with Chernobyl plant in the distance

 

Radio-operated bulldozers being tested before use

 

Abandoned housing blocks in Pripyat

The Chernobyl disaster was a nuclear accident that occurred on 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Ukrainian SSR (now Ukraine). An explosion and fire released large quantities of radioactive contamination into the atmosphere, which spread over much of Western Russia and Europe. It is considered the worst nuclear power plant accident in history, and is one of only two classified as a level 7 event on the International Nuclear Event Scale (the other being the Fukushima I nuclear incident, which is considered far less serious and has caused no direct deaths).[1] The battle to contain the contamination and avert a greater catastrophe ultimately involved over 500,000 workers and cost an estimated 18 billion rubles, crippling the Soviet economy.[2]

The disaster began during a systems test on 26 April 1986 at reactor number four of the Chernobyl plant, which is near the town of Pripyat. There was a sudden power output surge, and when an emergency shutdown was attempted, a more extreme spike in power output occurred, which led to a reactor vessel rupture and a series of explosions. These events exposed the graphite moderator of the reactor to air, causing it to ignite.[3] The resulting fire sent a plume of highly radioactive smoke fallout into the atmosphere and over an extensive geographical area, including Pripyat. The plume drifted over large parts of the western Soviet Union and Europe. From 1986 to 2000, 350,400 people were evacuated and resettled from the most severely contaminated areas of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine.[4][5] According to official post-Soviet data,[6][7] about 60% of the fallout landed in Belarus.

The accident raised concerns about the safety of the Soviet nuclear power industry, as well as nuclear power in general, slowing its expansion for a number of years and forcing the Soviet government to become less secretive about its procedures.[8][notes 1]

Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus have been burdened with the continuing and substantial decontamination and health care costs of the Chernobyl accident. Thirty one deaths are directly attributed to the accident, all among the reactor staff and emergency workers.[9] A UNSCEAR report places the total confirmed deaths from radiation at 64 as of 2008. Estimates of the number of deaths potentially resulting from the accident vary enormously: the World Health Organization (WHO) suggest it could reach 4,000;[10] a Greenpeace report puts this figure at 200,000 or more;[11] a Russian publication, Chernobyl, concludes that 985,000 excess deaths occurred between 1986 and 2004 as a result of radioactive contamination.[12]

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More tomorrow.

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