Category Archives: peak oil

John McCain’s Energy Policies – The “drill here, drill now” crowd looks pretty foolish right about now

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Even Bill O’Reilly agrees with me:

www.billoreilly.com

The rapid rise in Oil Prices and the concurrent rise in gasoline prices was caused by speculators in the oil market, reductions in gas refinement, the drop in the dollar value because of speculators, and China stock piling diesel fuel for the Olympics. There is no way that it was remotely related to supply and demand. Demand fell as the price climbed. Even conservative estimates say that so far this year Americans have driven 50 billion miles fewer than just last year.

Even worse than that is the fact that the Congress conceded the point to an angry electorate and passed a bill expanding drilling. That inspite of the fact that there is no oil in ANWR or along most of the continental shelf, there will be no bids on the leases if they are ever put up for sale, and we don’t have any oil rigs to drill there anyway. Every last rigg in the WORLD is spoken for right now.

So given all of that why is John McCain still touting the policy below?:

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/17671aa4-2fe8-4008-859f-0ef1468e96f4.htm

John McCain Will Commit Our Country To Expanding Domestic Oil Exploration. The current federal moratorium on drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf stands in the way of energy exploration and production. John McCain believes it is time for the federal government to lift these restrictions and to put our own reserves to use. There is no easier or more direct way to prove to the world that we will no longer be subject to the whims of others than to expand our production capabilities. We have trillions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves in the U.S. at a time we are exporting hundreds of billions of dollars a year overseas to buy energy. This is the largest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind. We should keep more of our dollars here in the U.S., lessen our foreign dependency, increase our domestic supplies, and reduce our trade deficit – 41% of which is due to oil imports. John McCain proposes to cooperate with the states and the Department of Defense in the decisions to develop these resources.

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Shouldn’t we be saying “anywhere but here, anytime but now”? Like New Orleanians say about hurricanes.
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Barack Obama’s Climate Change Policies – He makes no distinction between Climate and Energy use

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But John McCain does make such a distinction so in fairness, I did too.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy

Reduce our Greenhouse Gas

Emissions 80 Percent by 2050

• Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.
• Make the U.S. a Leader on Climate Change.

Learn More…
 

GET THE DETAILS:

Read the full version of The Obama-Biden New Energy for America plan

The Obama-Biden environmental plan

The Obama-Biden plan to crack down on excessive energy speculation
 

Natural Gas Sales Lead To Social Crisis in Bolivia – The fight over hydrocarbons heats up

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Its not just OIL. Every form of hydrocarbon will become  flash points as part of the world abandons the carbon economy while others rush to it as a salvation.

 http://ecoworldly.com/2008/09/16/fight-over-natural-gas-has-bolivia-on-brink-of-collapse/

Fight Over Natural Gas Has Bolivia on Brink of Collapse 

 Written by Levi Novey

Published on September 16th, 2008

Posted in Bolivia

Having gained confidence after handily winning a recall election with 67% of the vote last month, Bolvia’s President Evo Morales has proposed some controversial changes to Bolivia’s Constitution. He wants to redistribute wealth obtained from the sale of Bolivia’s abundant natural gas resources in a more equitable way to help the poor. He also wants to change the constitution so that he can run for a second term. These proposals have lead to violent protests in the country’s eastern provinces, that contain the bulk of Bolivia’s natural gas reserves. These regions are now threatening to break away. Tension is high and a civil war might soon emerge.Some of Morales’ opponents claim that he is trying to obtain dictatorial powers. They subsequently have blockaded roads, and temporarily shut down natural gas pipeline flow to Brazil (which gets 50% of its gas from Bolivia). Martial law has been declared in one province and the details of one particularly violent incident are still sketchy. It is unclear if Bolivia’s military is entirely behind Morales. At least 30 people have died so far during the conflict, and countless others have been injured.

Last week Morales also accused the United States of helping to fan the flames of the conflict, framing it as a coup d’etat to remove him as president. He expelled the American ambassador to Bolivia to send out his message of disapproval. The U.S.’s ambassador has denied the claims made against him.

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But this has happened before:

http://www.oilcrisis.com/bo/

Bolivia’s Mesa Offers to Step Down as Protests Mount, by Andrew J. Barden in Mexico City for Bloomberg [2005 March 7]

“Bolivian President Carlos Mesa offered his resignation to Congress almost 17 months after taking office, amid stepped up protests against the government’s energy policies…”It’s a highly dangerous moment for Bolivia,” Mesa said in a letter to Congress, read aloud by Cabinet Chief Jose Galindo and broadcast on CNN’s Spanish network. “These movements are leading the country to a point that is unsustainable. I can’t continue to govern under these circumstances,” the letter said.

“Mesa’s resignation would throw the South American country back into a political crisis less than two years after former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada was forced from office following deadly riots in opposition to his plans to export natural gas to the U.S. and Mexico.”

“Evo Morales, leader of the second-largest party in Congress, the Movement Toward Socialism, is leading protests to demand a new hydrocarbon law that raises royalties for foreign companies in Bolivia such as Spain’s Repsol YPF and Total SA of France. Bolivia has 28.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, Latin America’s second-largest reserves after Venezuela, according to BP Plc’s statistical review of world energy.”

Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, the former President of Bolivia:
“Our country’s long-term energy needs are dwarfed by its vast supplies.”

What does vast mean in Bolivia today?

“”According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Bolivia’s proven natural gas reserves were 24 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), as of January 2003. A study by U.S.-based consulting firm DeGolyer & MacNaughton in April 2003, however, certified Bolivia’s natural gas reserves at 54.9 Tcf, giving Bolivia the second-largest reserves in South America after Venezuela. The graph to the right reflects the large increases in reserve estimates since 1997.” From USA’s Energy Information Agency

Comparing Bolivia’s Natural Gas reserves with Global consumption of 90 TCF of natural gas per year, giving the benefit of the doubt that reserves are “certified” indeed at 54.9 TCF, Bolivia would be able to meet humanity’s Natural gas needs for 223 days. Is that a vast amount?

Peasants in Bolivia organized in September 2003 to revolt against “selling” [giving away?] their energy inheritance to the USA, where the average person consumes 40 times more natural gas, 15 times more electricity and 15 times more oil. To characterize this transfer of natural wealth as necessary for the economic well-being of their country is to completely misconstrue the inherent value of this resource in the long term as a mechanism for internal economic development. Furthermore, it could only come from ignorance of realistic global oil and natural gas reserves and prospects, or because Sanchez is deliberately ignoring these facts to support a political agenda

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And you know what this always leads to? When will they ever learn that standing in the road of social justice is foolish at best and disruptive at worse. People that have nothing have nothing to lose:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-09/12/content_9938579.htm

Even the Chinese know that.

Bolivia crisis cuts natural gas supply to Brazil by half

 RIO DE JANEIRO, September 11 (Xinhua) — The political crisis in Bolivia led to a 55-percent reduction in the country’s natural gas supply to its biggest customer Brazil, Transierra pipeline company said in a statement on Thursday,    The reduction was due to malfunction of a pipeline in southeastern Bolivia. It remains unclear if it was a technical problem or an act of sabotage.

    It is the second incident with Bolivia’s pipelines in less than24 hours. A pipeline in the Yacuiba region exploded on Wednesday, leading to a 10-percent reduction in the natural gas exports to Brazil.

    Brazil needs about 60 million cubic meters of natural gas everyday, and half of the supplies comes from Bolivia.

    Edison Lobao, Brazil’s Minister of Mines and Energy, has met with technical personnel and experts from the country’s state-owned oil and gas company Petrobras to work out a contingency plan to deal with the supply reduction.

    Sao Paulo city, which depends on Bolivia for 60 percent of its natural gas supply, has already launched a contingency plan. Sao Paulo state’s Basic Sanitation and Energy Secretary Dilma Pena said that the industrial sector will face the biggest reduction in gas supplies.

    She added, however, that residential and commercial clients, as well as hospitals, will be spared from the supply reduction.

    Protests, which broke out two weeks ago against Morales’ plans to amend the constitution and reallocate gas revenues, turned violent this week in southeastern Bolivia. Anti-government protesters blocked the road, stormed official buildings and clashed with supporters of the president.

    The borders to Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay have been closed and Bolivia’s ambassador to Brazil, Rene Mauricio Dorfler, said his government is considering declaring a state of emergency in the country.

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Tri Cars, Trikars, 3 Wheelers and Modified Motorcycles Come To Springfield, IL – I had hoped to have Sarah’s story to tell today

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Sarah O’Shea has some kind of Tri Car. It is pink, little, a convertible and cute. I really wanted a firsthand perspective. How does it handle? Is it loud? What is the ride like? But she does not seem interested, so I will just point people to places for 3 Wheelers. The funniest and long standing site is:

http://mysite.verizon.net/vze6omtd/jorysquibb/id1.html

He calls himself MoonBeam and he is a hoot. He also gets 72 miles to the gallon. yikes:

How to build Moonbeam, a 100 MPG microcar

How to Build Moonbeam

1: CHOOSING THE DONOR VEHICLES                               (It takes two, remember?)        

 It’s good to think well before you choose which motorcycles or scooters to chop up for your microcar. I decided that I wanted the following characteristics: 100 miles per gallon, a four-stroke engine with water cooling; an occasional small second-passenger capacity, but usually one passenger and 6 grocery bags; no gear shifting with hand controls only; an enclosed vehicle with a heater for all-weather operation; easy interior access with lots of light; and finally, a nice looking machine, that you looked back on admiringly as you walk away. All in a budget of $2000, including the donor vehicles and 400 hours of labor. A half-time, half-year project. Ha! What an underestimation!

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Then he says a bunch very funny things and offers these helpful websites:

www.micromuseum.com    www.ccpc.net/~jaho/3link.html    www.3-wheelers.com   www.maxmatic   and www.rqriley.com 

The coolest one is the 3-wheelers site. They have some really cool stuff.

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The scooters I chose,  I completely stripped, carefully bagging and labeling all parts, and then sawed through the frame tubes right where the tube enters the rear subframe. I used a reciprocating hand power saw, commonly called a Sawzall, and kept handy a large pack of 14 tooth blades. Gasp! It was hard to destroy a beautiful red motor scooter! See photo 1, which also shows what I am calling the subframe.

II: BUILDING A STRONG MINIMAL CHASSIS

     I wanted to build a minimal frame first and test the vehicle on the road before I went too far with building the body. As you will see, my idea was to join the scooter rear end into two front ends of the same scooter.  See the ‘improvements” page for, in retrospect,  an easier way.

I bought an 8’ length of steel rectangular tube which was 2″ X 4″ in section and an eighth inch thick and sawing 45 degree angles created a “U” shaped piece of chassis. I chose 40″ inches as the car’s width, so the sides are 40″ on center and the arms extend 18″ forward, with caps welded on the open ends. This strong main frame shows in Photo 3, the first road test.

A 40″ width, with a wheelbase of about 57″, turned out to be a nice size. But when 2 adults are seat belted side-by-side, THEY NEED TO BE ON FRIENDLY TERMS! It’s better if the second passenger is a child.

I would strongly recommend that you think in terms of a 1.5 passenger vehicle. These are only 10″ tires. There are drum, not disk, brakes. Especially important, the front suspension, which mainly supports the passengers, has limited travel. Two adults going over a large pot hole might well bend something.

You might choose a larger format, but my interest was always to see how small a vehicle I could use with dignity. I might have gone to a 63″ wheelbase and used the extra length for more legroom. But remember: size makes weight. Moonbeam weighs 112 on each front wheel, and 162 on the back, for a total of 386 lbs. It accelerates quickly up to 40 MPH, then slowly on up to 52, but with two adults aboard, it does labor up steep hills.

I didn’t know how to weld, so bought a Hobart Handler “MIG” welding set with helmet, gloves, cart, etc. and had the salesman give me a crash course in welding. Before I started welding the chassis, I forced myself to spend a day practicing on all types of welds on all thickness of steel. Even so, my welds were always amateurish. The MIG welder, which uses inert gas, does make welding a lot easier.

I then welded this “U” chassis to the scooter rear sub-frame, using scrap flat 1/8″ metal gussets to strengthen all connections. On the sub-frame, I also lengthened the rear springs by 1″ to raise the height a little, and then re-installed the motor unit in the sub-frame.

To begin understanding some of the 3-wheel technical stuff, read everything in this site: www.rqriley.com/download.html Especially note all the front end geometry stuff, and the fact that: “The center of gravity should no farther than 35 percent of the wheelbase from the side-by-side wheels of a three wheeler”. This means that the driver will sit further forward than you might imagine.

To position the two front forks, I built a stand, shown in photo 2, which supports both forks at 40 inch spacing, angled together at the top 1-2 degrees (camber) and leaning back 10 degrees (caster). The motor scooter caster of 27 degrees would make steering too hard. With this wooden stand screwed with dry wall screws to the rectangular plates which  already exists on the Honda fork tubes, and which show in front of my right shoulder in Photo 1; the stand supports the forks as I eventually wanted them. I then removed the forks, bearings, tires, etc. and sawed off the level part of the round scooter frames parallel with caps on the front of the chassis I had just made, and welded them to the chassis arms. The round scooter down-tube is also an eighth inch thick, which makes for easy welding. Then I put the forks back in, cleaning and greasing the steering head bearings, removed my wooden stand and jumped merrily on the chassis to test it. Hooray! A rolling chassis.

 

III. SETTING UP THE STEERING

     I wanted to steer with handlebars using all the original Honda electrical controls, brakes, throttle, as well as the speedometer cluster. This is such a major simplification! So I welded a temporary steel box channel between the steering heads, and pivoted the old Honda handlebars in the middle. I welded flat steel ‘steering plates’ leading forward from the scooter’s forks right below the lower bearings, spacing them outward 23 degrees from straight ahead. These show well in photo 4. This would give correct “Ackerman” angles to the wheels when fully turned, the wheel on the inside of the turn needing more angle than the outer. 

     Another way to calculate this 23 degrees, is that the outer ball joint end of each radius rod, sighted straight through the lower steering bearing, should point exactly to the ‘contact patch’ the rear wheel makes with the road.  On your car, using a different tread and wheelbase length, it won’t come out 23 degrees.

Later in construction, when I fine-tuned the passenger position, I removed the crossbar mentioned above, which was too obstructive, and used a post jutting out toward the driver from the curved forward frame member.  See Photo 7.  This maximized the ease of getting in and out.  The radius rods themselves are the limiting item for legroom.

Then, after welding in the crossmember,  and reassembling the forks, with upper and lower bearings well cleaned and greased, I created adjustable “radius rods” using 3/8″ hardware store rod, which I threaded to match the spherical ball joints, called Heim fittings”,  which I bought at the local auto parts store. ( Dorman 116-203, box of 5) I carefully drilled out the plates leading forward from the forks, using a 6″ radius and 23 degrees outward spread and assembled the radius rod to two back-to-back Heim fittings on an arm from the handlebars. These fittings are mounted exactly one above the other in order not to change the toe-in length when the wheels are turned.  See Photo 7

To set the correct toe-in, I then lashed two sticks along the outside of each front tire and adjusted the rods until the separation of the sticks behind the tire was 1/8″ more than in the front of the tire. Hooray! The wheels turned smoothly together

IV: ROAD TESTING THE VEHICLE

      The beauty of this cycle-car, is that it uses so much of the wonderful engineering of the original Honda. I simply needed to reconnect the wiring harness, reattach the speedometer to the handlebars, then attach the horn, ignition switch, fuse box, and radiator to my temporary front cross member, put a battery box near the engine, and press the starter button. VROOM!

But I needed at least one brake for the road testing, at best a rear brake. So, from my local scooter repair man, I got a Honda Aero 80 rear brake cable which was long enough to go to a modified bicycle hand brake which i clamped between the left side handlebar electric cluster and the rubber hand grip. I knew I wanted left side to be the rear brake, and right to be front as on most mopeds. This allows you to blip the throttle while braking the rear wheel. Once I had a good rear brake functioning on the left side lever, I donned my warmest clothing (on Groundhog’s day here in Maine) and pushed the beast out in the weak winter sun. Three intense months of building had passed! See photo 3 for the original road test.

I had registered and insured the vehicle as a motor scooter, using the donor vehicle information,  so with new plates, I slowly circled my immediate block and gradually traveled 10 miles. The steering was far too twitchy, but otherwise, given the lack of weight, which the eventual body would provide, the car handled beautifully up to my personal limit of 40 MPH.

    It was amazing to be driving a vehicle you had created yourself.  There was little feeling of safety or creature comfort.  The wind chill was bracing.  But what a great boost to morale!  Now I could again engage in such a long-winded  and humbling project.

Back in the garage, I shortened the radius of the handlebar steering arm from 6″ to 3″ and tested the car again. This time the handling was steady and predictable and the car could still “U” turn in the width of a road. The handlebars moved a quarter circle each side of center. I now felt confident enough to begin on the body, so I removed all the stuff I had installed for the road test. You might be able to see in the picture that I was using conduit for the passenger foot support, held up by red hold-down straps. Not reccommended at 40MPH!

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There is soooo much more that I could add from his site. He is so funny. So earthy  and he makes one telling point. He and everyone else in the alternative ground transportation systems are building Trikes because as soon as you add the 4rth wheel they become cars and the whole world changes. Hell you could just convert your car to Natural Gas. It is real easy to do. In fact Iran is in the process of shifting every vehicle in the COUNTRY to natural gas so they can sell us expensive oil. If you do that here you have to get a permit and inspection from the EPA for every vehicle. 

 

 

 

 

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SMART Cars Come To Springfield – What an unexpected day that was

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I do not mean to imply that high gasoline mileage cars would never come to Springfield. What happen was I ran into 2 examples of such cars accidentally in the course of 1 hour. I was waiting for my friend Randi to show up at one of my favorite places to eat and the best Middle Eastern restaurant in the Midwest (plug) The Holy Land Diner (plug). It was a beautiful day for Illinois in August. 80 degrees, bright sunshine, light breeze. I was in a really good mood. I had not had lunch with Randi for over a year. I have known Randi for 40 years and she is a real sweetheart. I love her to pieces. I am leaning up against the awning outside of the restaurant, when a car zips in and parks right in front of me. It is a bright blue, convertible 2 seater which I vaguely recognized as a high mileage car that is really popular in Europe. This is the first one I have seen in Springfield, though I had heard rumors that there were some about. This cute young lady hops out of this car and she is laughing merrily. I said, nice car. She said, Now I know why men get all excited about cars. I knew I had to know more. The lady’s name was Judith Libby, and we will hear more from her later. About the car:

http://www.smartusa.com/

smartcar1.jpg

The $99 Reservation Program!

Would you like to reserve your very own new smart fortwo? Our exciting $99 Reservation Program is open to all smart enthusiasts. Be sure to share the news about this exciting program with your family and friends. Please note, this program is specifically designed for smart enthusiasts, so brokers and dealers are excluded from participating in the $99 Reservation Program.

smart fortwo safety results announced

The 2008 smart fortwo achieved the highest ratings from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) for front and side crashworthiness. This is “big” news for our fantastic “little” car.

PASSION CABRIOLET 

starting at $16,590*

The passion cabriolet has all the features of the passion coupe plus an upgraded radio and sound system that includes an mp3 compatible in-dash 6-disk CD changer. The main difference lies in the soft top, with a heated rear glass window, that is fully automatic and can be infinitely adjusted to any position while driving at any speed. For the full cabriolet experience, simply remove the side roof bars – taken out in no time – and stow them in a special compartment in the tailgate.

To see the smart fortwo in every color, click here.

Standard Equipment

Engine/ Drivetrain
1.0 L, 71 HP, 3 cylinder engine
5 speed automated manual transmission
Paddle shifters

Wheels/tires
9-spokes alloy wheels (15″) with front tires: 155/60 R15; rear tires 175/55 R15
Tire pressure monitoring system

Exterior
Fully automatic convertible top with glass rear window
Projector beam halogen headlights
Side indicators in yellow
Exterior mirror trim in tridion color

Interior
3-spoke leather sports steering wheel with steering wheel shift paddles (incl. leather gear knob)
Basic seat with weight detection and seatbelt recognition
Flat folding passenger seat with backrest adjustment
Storage areas beside the steering wheel and in both doors
Coin holder
Dome light
Mirror in passenger sun visor

Storage
Lockable glove compartment

Audio
smart premium radio (AM/FM, mp3-compatible 6 disc CD changer; aux input jack [radio 10])
smart sound system (2 tweeters, 2 mid range, subwoofer)

Safety
Full-size driver and passenger airbags
Head/Neck side airbags
esp® – electronic stability program with hill start assist
Anti-lock braking system (abs) with electronic brake force distribution
Hydraulic dual-circuit brake system
Integral safety seats
Seat belts with belt tensioner and belt-force limiter
Drive lock – auto-activation of the central locking when driving
Top Tether for child restraint system
Panic button on key
Tire repair kit

Functional/electrical equipment
Air conditioning with automatic temperature control (incl. dust, pollen filter)
Power windows with one-touch lowering function
Electronic and heated side mirrors
Central locking system with remote control
Instrument cluster with multifunctional display (fuel-level indicator, coolant-level indicator, residual fuel indicator, service interval indicator, trip mileage indicator, clock, loose gas cap indicator)
Outside temperature indicator
Indicators with lane changer function
Front windshield wiper with speed-dependent interval wiping and wiper-/wash function
Electric rear window defroster
Electric tailgate release
Locking gas cap
12-volt socket, with cover

Factory installed options  
Metallic paint (gray, blue, silver) $225
Silver metallic tridion safety cell $175
Alarm system $160
Power steering $450
Heated seats $220
Fog lamps $110
Additional instruments $120
Daytime running lamps $50
   
Option packages  
Comfort Package $850
– Power steering
– Leather seats
– Heated seats
– Rain and light sensor
– Auto-off headlamps with exit delay		  
   

When I talked to Judy next to get some details about her and how much she liked her car, she was passionate about her Mercedes. I commented on the bright blue color and that it was a convertible. She just laughed excitedly and and said that the name SMART stands for S (swatch) M (mercedes) ART. Swatch was responsible for the ART design and Mercedes for the quality and the safety. She said that a girlfriend of hers went to Italy on vacation and rented one. She came back raving about the car (not Italy) and she checked them out. When she found out she could have a Mercedes (her dream) Convertible (her other dream) High Mileage (dream) for under $20,000 dollars she placed an order for the car immediately, last May. It took about a year to get the car, but she didn’t really care about the timing. She also raved about the process too. You order your exact Car with a 99$ reservation fee. If you do not want your car at anytime you get your 99$ back and you create what they call an “orphan”. They cheer at the dealership because there is a waiting list for them as well and they can then sell the car FOR WHATEVER they can get! She said she could infact sell hers right now for more than she paid. If she used Ebay she said the bidding would be furious but noway is she parting with the car. She said it is a thrill to drive and the most amazing thing to me (do not hold your breath) was that you could put the rag top up and down on the fly!

After lunch I was walking Randi back to her office and there in her parking lot was a bright pink three wheeled car like the Aptera. I said wow this is my day. Do you know who owns that car? She said, oh yah Sarah bought that car in Wisconsin. She really likes it and it gets like 50 miles to the gallon. More about Sarah tomorrow.

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The Peak Oil People Sometimes Scare Themselves – Especially when they get together for a little soire

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I know this is dated but the conference was held at the middle of this speculative oil price spike that has gone on for at least 6 months. I wonder if the Peak Oil folks know how to tell a speculative spike, a real spike through scarcity of production facilities and true Peak Oil. All of them would shadow a simlar spike?

http://www.mlive.com/news/grpress/index.ssf?/base/news-42/1212300955258630.xml&coll=6

What happens when oil runs out?

 

Sunday, June 01, 2008By Garret M. Ellison

The Grand Rapids Press

GRAND RAPIDS — The collapse of cities, a return to rail transportation, famine and a worldwide depression are but a few outcomes predicted by energy industry insiders and believers in the peak oil theory who gathered this weekend at Calvin College.

“We will have a different civilization, to be sure,” said David Goodstein, a vice provost and professor of physics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

Goldstein wrote the book, “Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil.” He joined dozens of speakers at the International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change.

He was the kickoff speaker at the three-day event, which explored the double-pronged crises of peak oil and climate change by examining their effects on society, and offering sustainable solutions.

Peak oil is the point at which half of the world’s supply has been extracted and production levels off. This is expected to cause massive societal upheaval because the worldwide demand for oil is increasing rapidly.

It’s a controversial subject, and not all are convinced. Skeptics and some oil producers say a peak is years away and that new technologies will allow our energy appetite to be satisfied by tar sands and oil shale while renewable sources come online.

But those who believe in the peak oil scenario say we have reached that point already or will in a few years. New oil discoveries are slim. The last major discovery was in the 1960s.

They say that alternative energies cannot match the capacity of fossil fuels, and nuclear fusion — the one known silver bullet — is perpetually 25 years in the future.

Supply will be further constrained by aging infrastructure, they say. These arguments are fueled by the rising cost of food and oil, which recently topped $130 a barrel.

One point that everyone agrees on is that oil is a finite resource, and that nobody quite knows for sure how much is left.

 “We will see the effects of the peak very soon. How soon — I don’t know,” Goldstein said.

“It’s possible that it’ll be off another five, 10, or even 20 years.

“But 20 years is nothing on the scale of human history,” he said. “Our children, or our grandchildren are in for some very difficult times.”

That could mean civil unrest and famine, as petrol-based fertilizers become prohibitively expensive, driving up the cost of food — and everything else.

“The haves and the have-nots are going to be fighting for diminishing reserves,” said Steven F. Crower, an energy investment banker based in Denver.

“I think the price of oil will cause the collapse of the dollar,” he said. “The new gold standard is going to be energy.”

That’s somewhat less dire than the reality painted by Richard Heinberg, an author of eight books on peaking resources and a senior fellow at the Post Carbon Institute.

All complex systems inevitably collapse, said Heinberg, and ours is no different. A local-based agrarian economy is his vision of the future. Rail will be the primary transportation mode.

For some conference attendees, the concept of peaking oil production seemed like a very stark reality.

“I think it was Hunter S. Thompson who said that sometimes the massive crime that takes place in front of everyone is the one that goes unnoticed,” said Jackson Carreras, 24, of Plymouth.

The conference was organized by Aaron Wissner, of Middleville, who heads-up the local nonprofit, Local Future. It runs through 5 p.m. today.

Send e-mail to the author: gellison@grpress.com

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Here are the people that brought you the above conference. They seem like nice enough young people

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http://localfuture.org/

Local Future
Paths to Sustainability

Michigan Conference – Nov. 2008

NEW!!!  Announcing “The Conference of Michigan’s Future: Energy, Economy & Environment” for Friday, Nov. 14 through Sunday, Nov. 16 at Crystal Mountain Resort in Thompsonville, Michigan.  Click the link above for speakers, ticket, and other specifics.

International Conference – Online

Local Future hosts the International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability.  The inaugural conference features 50 presenters including Richard Heinberg, Julian Darley, Dr. David Goodstein, Megan Quinn Bachman, Stephanie Mills, and Pat Murphy.

NEW! – Watch conference presentations & download podcasts for free.

 

Introduction

Unemployment, inflation, war, peak oil, climate change, biodiversity loss, overpopulation — global problems that need local solutions.

Local Future helps communities develop compassionate, sustainable, local, systems to provide jobs, food, energy, transportation, and essential services.

Local Future Network members develop these systems by helping their community to transition from dependent units of the failed global economy; to independent cultures of compassionate, sustainable, local economy.

Global Problems

The global economic system creates problems which threaten humanity and the planet:

  • peak oil
  • climate change
  • over population
  • resource depletion
  • widespread pollution
  • misallocation of power
  • institutional cruelty
  • economic instability
  • environmental destruction
  • geopolitical conflict & war

This unsustainable global economic system fails to protect humans, the environment, and the natural systems on which all life depends.  It does not meet the long term goals of civilization. 

When a system fails to such a catastrophic degree, it is time for change.

Local Solutions

New local systems must be developed that are grounded in a value system of truth, compassion, understanding, sustainability, renewal and community.  Developing new systems takes dedicated individuals who share the common value system, walk a common path, and move towards a common vision of the future.  Local systems are needed to provide:

  • jobs – that are challenging, safe and community oriented
  • money – community currency that creates jobs, motivates progress and reinforces values
  • food – that is nutritious, compassionate, sustainable, organic and available year-round
  • energy – heat, electricity and fuels from renewable sun, wind, water and biomass sources
  • transportation – utilizing ride sharing, mass transit, community vehicles and human power
  • homes – safe, comfortable and welcoming, zero energy new homes and retrofits
  • water – fresh, clean, free water that is owned and managed locally
  • waste management  – emphasizing reduce, reuse and recycling
  • health care – high quality, low cost, community based services and prevention
  • education – local teachers dedicated to providing continuing service
  • security – utilizing open communication, problem solving, education and dialogue
  • entertainment – opportunities for all to participate and enjoy
  • culture – celebrating diversity and history
  • spirituality – inviting all people to explore the deeper questions of life

Members of Local Future Network communicate and meet to learn, support, plan, and act.  They take the initiative to increase independence for themselves and their communities.  Their shared value system of truth, compassion, understanding, sustainability, renewal and community guides their actions toward a vision of a prosperous local future.

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The Ultimate Peak Oil Site – While I know that speculators caused this price spike

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The Peak Oil People are so focused on the inevitable that you have to admire them: 

http://postcarbon.org/

Post Carbon Institute

Reduce Consumption : Produce Locally

New: Post Carbon Institute Issues A Call For Action
and releases Ten Steps For Individuals To Get Off Fossil Fuels

Commentaries

 

Airline industry backpedaling on expansion?

After my presentation to the Anchorage (Alaska) Municipal Assembly last week, I chatted with a…

Daniel Lerch · August 15, 2008 ·

 

Losing Control

August 15, 2008

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Humankind has control issues, and they’re about to get a lot worse. As a species, we’ve…

Richard Heinberg · August 15, 2008 ·

 

How students get around

August 14, 2008

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The USA Today headline was “Schools move to eject cars from campuses.” The article gave…

laurel · August 14, 2008 ·

 

The Disappearing Lake

August 13, 2008

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As the subtitle of Richard Heinberg’s book Peak Everything says, the world is waking up…

asher · August 13, 2008 ·

Media Appearances

 

Al Jazeera

Post Carbon Institute Senior Fellow Richard Heinberg was interviewed by Al Jazeera English TV. Richard…

Aug 4 2008 ·

Press Democrat

Kiss Your Gas Goodbye! was covered in this in-depth article in the Sunday Edition of…

Aug 3 2008 ·

 

Featured Articles

 

A Call to Action

August 02, 2008

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A call to action for each of us to respond to the joint challenge of peak oil and climate change.

August 02, 2008 ·

 

Peak VMT – Are Americans Kissing Their Gas Goodbye?

Here’s an interesting question: if you gaze for a moment at this fine piece of art…

July 31, 2008 ·

 

IEA Still Misleading On Future Oil Supply

The IEA is still saying there is no real problem with oil…

July 31, 2008 ·

 

100 Percent Renewable Power

July 22, 2008

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Post Carbon Institute’s Plan to reach Al Gore’s ambitious goal of 100% Renewable Electricity in ten years.

July 22, 2008 ·

Screw The Environment – Humans were meant to pollute and they have the right to pollute

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I never thought I would be citing Kathryn Rem at the SJ-R for an environmental article. Don’t get me wrong she is a dandy writer, in the same league with Tim Landis (whom I regularly “borrow from”), but she usually writes a food column. I read it faithfully because I am a minor foodie, and she usually has cool things to say. In her Seeing Red About Green, she broke a story that I might have missed. Thanks Ms. Rem!

www.sj-r.com/features/x379998865/Kathryn–Rem-Seeing-red-about-the-green-movement

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This is the article that I think she based her article on:

http://industry.bnet.com/retail/2008/07/14/one-quarter-of-consumers-say-screw-the-environment/ 

 Retail Industry

Industry news and insights by Lisa EverittOne-Quarter of Consumers Say ‘Screw The Environment’Two new studies say 10-26 percent of shoppers are “Never Greens,” whose reactions to environmental claims ranges from apathy to outright anger.

Mintel International in Chicago coined the term “Never Green” to describe 10 percent of the shopper universe. A second study by The Shelton Group of Knoxville, Tenn., found that 26 percent of respondents were “hardcore skeptics,” mostly upper middle-class, conservative, middle-aged men.

 reporter Jim Edwards profiles William Coverley, a retired investment banker from Ohio, who just bought his 10th vehicle, a 2008 GMC Yukon XL that gets 14 miles per gallon.

“I don’t care about the environmental reasons and I’ll tell you why,” Coverley said. “All this stuff about carbon emissions, no one really knows about the output of the sun and yet it’s the single most important input behind global warming . . . Are the Chinese going to be environmentalists? Are the Indians going to be environmentalists? Are the Russians? I don’t think so.”

Edwards suggests studying your market carefully before launching green marketing, because emphasizing environmental claims may cost you the business of people like Coverley or Washington accountant Sally Herigstad. She bought organic produce by mistake at Fred Meyer and was dismayed to discover a recently deceased two-inch caterpillar in her steamed broccoli.

Shelton Group CEO Suzanne Shelton found that 46 percent of respondents felt “guilty, skeptical, irritated or unaffected by green issues,” and the same percentage put their comfort ahead of convenience and environmental concerns. The study was commissioned by Shelton Group client BP Solar.

Lisa Everitt

A Denver-based business writer, Lisa Everitt is a veteran of daily and weekly newspapers and trade magazines, including The Natural Foods Merchandiser, Rocky Mountain News, Inter@ctive Week, San Francisco Business Times, and the Peninsula Times Tribune. 

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So in the end that is what the environmental movement is up against.  The environmental Rape Crowd, proud that they are stealing from their grandchildren because their grandparents stole from them. If you think they aren’t vocal, you would be wrong.

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www.screw-the-environment.imgwebdesign.co.uk

www.deadbabyseals.gather.com

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2041643/posts

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODDDu25OG6M

http://screwtheenvironment.blogspot.com/

www.iammamahearmeroar.blogspot.com/2007/09/screw–environment.html

 http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/4/8/214522/1724

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Oil Falls to 121$$ A Barrel – We are all going to die, but it will take awhile and be mildly uncomfortable

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This is the last time I am going to post about nasty icky oil (that we should stop burning anyway) until it falls below 100$$ a barrel. We need the stuff for pharmecuticals, and parts for our satellites/space craft. Stuff that only oil can be used to make. Transportation ain’t one of them and we need to quit using it for that. Oil will be below 100$$ a barrel by the end of August. All of the oil people should be freaking out because we used some 800,000 fewer barrels in May the USA and those kind of changes usually are permanent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080729/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices;_ylt=AshIG6iZs_taqFegOtxj5tOs0NUE

Oil hits 7-week low on demand worries, dollar gain 

By4 STEVENSON JACOBS, AP Business Writer 

NEW YORK – Oil prices tumbled to their lowest level in seven weeks Tuesday as a stronger dollar and beliefs that record prices are eroding the world’s thirst for energy sparked another dramatic sell-off

The drop — as much as $4 a barrel during the day — was a throwback to oil’s nosedive over the past two weeks and outweighed supply concerns touched off by a militant attack Monday on two Nigerian crude pipelines. It was oil’s seventh decline in the last 10 sessions.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell $1.89, or 1.52 percent, to $122.84 a barrel in early afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, prices fell to $120.42, the lowest level for a front-month contract since June 10; they have now fallen more than $25 from their trading high of $147.27, reached July 11.

More concerns that crude’s run-up over the past year has pushed prices to unsustainable levels fed Monday’s decline. The U.S. Transportation Department said Monday that U.S. drivers logged 9.6 billion fewer vehicle miles in May — or 3.7 percent — compared to the same period last year, the biggest drop ever for the historically busy summer driving month.

And demand for oil in the U.S. — the world’s thirstiest consumer — continues to fall, dropping by 891,000 barrels per day in May compared the same month a year ago, the Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said Monday.

“We’re seeing both statistical and anecdotal evidence of very rapidly weakening demand picture,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.

The declines accelerated after oil briefly dipped below $122, a key resistance level that triggered technical selling by computers programed to dump oil contracts once prices fall below a certain threshold. The next technical level traders are watching is $117.

“I think we could see $117 a barrel in a one-week time frame, and this market could eventually get to $100,” Ritterbusch said.

Also weighing on prices was a sharply stronger dollar compared to the euro, which made commodities less attractive to investors who have bought oil futures as a hedge against inflation and weakness in the U.S. currency.

The euro bought $1.5557 compared with $1.5752 late Monday in New York.

“It looks like oil is selling off today with the very, very strong dollar and nothing to drive it higher. Quiet seems to be bearish these days,” said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J.

In a further sign high prices are curbing Americans’ consumption for fuel, retail gas prices fell further below the $4-a-gallon mark. The average price of a regular gas fell 1.7 cents to $3.941, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Prices Information Service and Wright Express.

Monday’s attack in Nigeria targeted two pipelines believed to be owned by a unit of Royal Dutch Shell PLC and was the latest in a two-year campaign of attacks on the country’s oil industry. Shell said a pipeline had been damaged in attacks and that some crude production had been shut down to prevent the oil from spilling into the environment.

The oil company said Tuesday it may not be able to fulfill some oil-export contracts because of the damage. Shell didn’t specify how much oil production was cut by the attack or how long repairs would take.
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 http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-34728620080729

‘Abnormal’ oil prices could fall to$80-OPEC pres

 By Muklis Ali

JAKARTA (Reuters) – OPEC should not consider cutting production after oil’s steep two-week decline as markets are now balanced, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said on Tuesday, adding that prices could yet fall another $50 a barrel.

Khelil, who is also Algeria’s oil minister, said oil prices could fall to $70 to $80 in the long-term, if the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen and geopolitical anxieties eased.

“The price today is abnormal at $123 a barrel,” said Khelil, speaking to reporters on a visit to Jakarta to meet Indonesia’s energy minister.

He did not elaborate, but OPEC ministers have said repeatedly that they believe the surge in oil prices is not being driven by a shortage of supply.

Asked if OPEC members should cut supply if oil prices continue to decline, he said: “No, I don’t think so, why should they cut production? They always want to make sure there is good supply and demand and to satisfy the demand.”

U.S. oil prices have fallen by $22 from a record high above $147 a barrel earlier this month amid growing concerns that high prices and slowing economic growth are causing a decline in demand, but prices are still up 30 percent on the year.

“We are not worried about any price, because we don’t decide the price. We just meet the demand,” he said.

Khelil said he did not see any signs of demand destruction from high prices. 
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Oil Is 125$$ A Barrel – We are all going to die!

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Oh sorry, as oil gentily falls to 70 or 80$$ per barrel. Americans will have to come to grips with the fact that the super wealthy just soaked the world for 350 billion $$. The Saudies have to be trembling. Americans travel 40 billion miles less this year. Bummer guys.